Analysts Expect Weekly Decrease in U.S. Crude Oil Stockpiles

By Anthony Harrup

U.S. crude oil inventories likely posted a small decline last week, along with a withdrawal in diesel stocks, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.

Commercial crude oil stocks are expected to have fallen by 300,000 barrels to 415.3 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 16, according to the average estimate of nine analysts and traders. Three forecast an increase and six predict a decline, with expectations ranging from a build of 2.5 million barrels to a withdrawal of 3 million barrels.

Gasoline inventories are seen unchanged at 208.3 million barrels, according to the survey, with estimates ranging from a decline of 1.5 million barrels to a build of 2 million barrels.

Stocks of distillate fuel, mostly diesel, are expected to have fallen by 1.3 million barrels to 101.3 million barrels, with forecasts ranging from a 2 million barrel increase to a 3 million barrel drop.

Refinery capacity use is seen edging up by one tenth of a percentage point to 93.6%. Forecasts range from a rise of 0.9 of a percentage point to a half percentage point decline. Two analysts didn't forecast refinery runs.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release the inventory data Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

 
                                    Crude    Gasoline  Distillates Refinery Use 
   Again Capital                    -1.4        1.6       -1.9        0.9 
   Confluence Investment Management  1.0        1.0       -0.5        0.5 
   Rystad Energy                    -0.3       -0.3       -1.2       -0.3 
   Excel Futures                    -1.3       -0.4       -1.4       -0.5 
   Spartan Capital Securities       -0.5       -1.5       -2.9        n/f 
   Mizuho                           -3.0       -1.0       -3.0       -0.2 
   Price Futures Group               2.0        2.0        2.0       unch 
   Ritterbusch & Associates          2.5       -1.4       -1.5        0.3 
   Tradition Energy                 -2.0        0.3       -1.2        n/f 
 
   AVERAGE                          -0.3       unch       -1.3        0.1 
 

Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.

n/f = no forecast

unch = unchanged

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 20, 2026 13:20 ET (17:20 GMT)