Soybean Futures Drop as Crush Rate Slides to 13-Month Low — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

-Soybeans for November delivery fell 1% to $12.64 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, after NOPA's monthly soybean crush report showed September crushings at its lowest in 13 months.

-Wheat for December delivery fell 0.6% to 6.69 1/4 a bushel.

-Corn for December delivery fell 0.5% to $4.78 1/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Soy Slowdown: CBOT soybean futures fell after the National Oilseed Processors Association said that soybeans crushed in the U.S. found a 13-month low in September at 196.3 million bushels. The NOPA figures are a pressure point on soybeans today, said Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions. "The NOPA crush report was disappointing as it was below expectations, likely due to the lack of soybean availability due to the slow harvest," said Hoops, who speculates that next month's report may be a return to form as more freshly harvested U.S. soybeans hit the market.

Sales Streak: The USDA confirmed another flash sale of U.S. soybean exports to China, making it two days in a row that the agency reported large volumes sold to China. The USDA said that 330,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year. The USDA also reported a flash sale of an additional 283,450 tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in 2026/27. While export strength is a source of optimism for traders, that optimism was set aside as the day progressed.

INSIGHT

Looking for More: Analysts surveyed by WSJ are largely forecasting soybean export sales for the week ended Oct. 8 to rise from the prior week's 549,400 metric tons, potentially topping out around 1.2 million tons. Higher soybean export sales would come after multiple flash sales reported this week, although those sales would not count for this week's report. But any signs of China buying more U.S. soybeans would be a factor that pushes soybean futures higher.

Not Quite There: Average daily ethanol production in the U.S. rose from last week, the EIA said Thursday, although it landed at the low end of forecasts from analysts surveyed by Dow Jones. Production for the week ended Oct. 9 was 1.065 million barrels a day, up 12,000 barrels a day from the prior week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week had forecast average ethanol production between 1.065 million barrels a day and 1.095 million barrels a day. Stockpiles also rose, to 23.94 million barrels, up 199,000 barrels from the prior week. Surveyed analysts had mostly forecast stocks to fall this week, with estimates landing between 23.49 million barrels and 23.89 million barrels.

Off a Cliff: Exports of wheat out of Russia are forecast to total 2.5 million metric tons in October, down 100,000 tons from the previous month and off 2.9 million tons from this time last year, according to projections from SovEcon. "Black Sea logistics remain the main constraint," said the firm in a note. "No wheat shipments have left Russian Black Sea ports since late September, while risks to commercial shipping remain high." SovEcon adds that the question is whether or not a prolonged stoppage for Black Sea shipments has been fully priced into wheat futures.

AHEAD

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 15, 2026 15:01 ET (19:01 GMT)