TotalEnergies Expects Windfall as Conflict Squeezes Fuel Supplies — Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is down 0.6% at $105.44 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is down 0.7% at 86.49 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures are down 1% at $14,297.50 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are up 1.7% at $4,176 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

TotalEnergies Expects Windfall as Conflict Squeezes Fuel Supplies

TotalEnergies said it expects to report exceptional results from its downstream business after third-quarter refining margins jumped, lifted by global conflict and export restrictions that removed millions of barrels of refined products from the market and left customers scrambling for alternate supplies.

The windfall isn't isolated to its refining and chemicals division--a jump in gas prices, strong oil and gas trading, and elevated oil prices have all combined to set TotalEnergies up for a bumper third quarter.

The conflict in the Middle East between the U.S., its allies, and Iran has upended energy markets. In the third quarter, its impact was most pronounced on refineries, where crude oil is turned into the products that power the global economy.

OTHER STORIES:

IEA Says Oil Stock Release Will Exceed 400 Million Barrels

The International Energy Agency said Thursday that the volume of emergency oil stocks being released by member countries would exceed the 400 million barrels agreed in March.

Members have pledged to expedite the remaining releases of around 100 million barrels, including over 20 million barrels of diesel, according to the Paris-based energy group. About 330 million barrels have been released to date.

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Oil Prices Mixed as Traders Weigh Demand Outlook, Hormuz Shipping Risks

Oil prices were mixed Thursday as traders weighed a weaker global demand outlook and signs of recovering Middle East crude supplies against persistent shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz.

December Brent crude futures fell 1.1% to $104.85 a barrel, while December West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.2% to $94.10 a barrel.

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Liberty Mutual Investments, Elda River Form $500 Million Energy Strategy

Liberty Mutual Investments and Elda River Capital Management have set up a new senior-credit strategy to invest as much as $500 million in midsize energy-infrastructure businesses.

The partnership follows similar deals that the asset management arm of insurance company Liberty Mutual Group recently formed with energy-focused investment firms, as it seeks to capitalize on surging demand for energy and related infrastructure.

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Gas Exporter Venture Global Wants to Get In on AI Power Boom

Natural-gas exporter Venture Global VG is joining the race to provide power to the artificial-intelligence boom, aiming to build gas-fired generation at its facilities to supply electricity to data centers.

Venture Global said it has entered into agreements with GE Vernova GEV and Baker Hughes Energy Services to procure equipment for on-site power plants, including turbines and transformers, which have been in high demand. The deals will allow Venture Global over time to make up to 10 gigawatts of computing capacity available at sites the company owns or controls.

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Commercial Metals 4Q Profit Rises as Construction Solutions Sales Nearly Double

Commercial Metals reported a jump in fourth-quarter profit on expanding metal margins and strong demand in its construction solutions unit.

For the three months ended Aug. 31, the steel and construction solutions provider posted on Thursday a rise in net income to $212.5 million, or $1.91 a share, compared with $151.8 million, or $1.35 a share, in the same quarter a year ago.

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Antofagasta Shares Slump on Weak Copper Outlook

Shares in Antofagasta fell in opening trade after the Chilean miner gave tepid guidance for copper production next year.

The London-listed miner said Thursday that it expects copper output in the range of 630,000 to 690,000 metric tons in 2027, a weaker outlook than its initial 2026 guidance of 650,000 to 700,000 tons.

MARKET TALKS:

Russian Wheat Exports are Forecast to Plummet in October -- Market Talk

1029 ET - Exports of wheat out of Russia are forecast to total 2.5 million metric tons in October, which is down 100,000 tons from the previous month but off 2.9 million tons from this time last year, according to projections from SovEcon. "Black Sea logistics remain the main constraint," says the firm in a note. "No wheat shipments have left Russian Black Sea ports since late September, while risks to commercial shipping remain high." SovEcon adds that the question is whether or not a prolonged stoppage for Black Sea shipments has been fully priced into wheat futures. CBOT wheat is up 1%, while corn is down 0.1% and soybeans drop 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

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Cattle Struggles to Break Out of Lower Trend -- Market Talk

1025 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME are up 0.1%. If cattle finishes higher it'll break a three-day skid for the contract, according to data from FactSet. October has been a down month for cattle, settling lower for 8 out of the past 10 trading sessions. "Contracts are struggling to rally through overhead resistance while the momentum on a daily chart has reached overbought for the first time in a month," says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. Lean hog futures are up 0.2%, after dropping to the lowest since January 2024. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

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Crude Futures Mixed As WTI-Brent Spread Narrows -- Market Talk

0934 ET - Oil futures are mixed with West Texas Intermediate rising in early U.S. trading and Brent retreating, further narrowing the spread between the two benchmarks. The spread had become "unsustainably wide" near $14 a barrel on rising freight rates driven by the closed Strait of Hormuz, Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. "We feel that this huge gap has further to narrow, possibly to around an $8 spread." December Brent is off 0.9% at $105.12 a barrel and WTI for December delivery is up 0.9% at $94.74 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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USDA Confirms Flash Sale of Soybeans to China for Second Day -- Market Talk

0929 ET - The USDA has confirmed another flash sale of U.S. soybean exports to China, making it two days in a row that the agency has confirmed large volumes sold to China. The USDA says that 330,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year. The USDA also reported a flash sale of an additional 283,450 tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in 2026/27. CBOT soybeans fell 0.3% in pre-market trading, with prices under pressure due to farmers selling their harvested soybeans to grain elevators and other buyers, says Gary Sandlund of Futures International in a note. Corn rises 0.1% and wheat rises 0.4% pre-market. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

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U.S. Natural Gas Futures Gain Ahead of Storage Report -- Market Talk

0922 ET - Natural gas futures are higher ahead of the EIA's weekly inventory data due at 10:30 a.m. ET, with a cold spell expected in the Northeast this weekend supporting near-term heating demand. Natural gas storage is expected to have risen by 75 Bcf last week, according to a WSJ survey of analysts, which would reduce the inventory surplus over the five-year average for a ninth straight week. Nymex natural gas is up 1.5% at $3.245/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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Palm Oil Falls on Weakness in Rival Oils -- Market Talk

1031 GMT - Palm oil fell during the Asian trading session, pressured by weaker soybean and vegetable oil prices, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Softer crude oil also weighed on sentiment despite stronger export demand for October, Ng adds. Ng sees support for prices at around 4,600 ringgit per ton, with resistance at 4,750 ringgit. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery fell 78 ringgit to 4,622 ringgit a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

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Antofagasta's 2027 Guidance Implies No Growth -- Market Talk

0816 GMT - Antofagasta's 2027 guidance implies no growth to the original guidance it gave for 2026, Ben Davis and David Monus at RBC say in a note. Earlier this year, Antofagasta cut its 2026 copper production outlook from the 650,000-700,000 metric tons that it had initially expected to 625,000-655,000. Its 2027 guidance is below the initial range, and also was given despite the expectation of a pickup in grades at the Los Pelambres mine, and the expected commissioning of a second concentrator at Centinela, they say. Shares are down 6.5% at 3,341 pence. (aimee.look@wsj.com)

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TotalEnergies' Update Highlights Strong Downstream Performance - Market Talk -- Market Talk

0808 GMT - TotalEnergies' downstream unit performed well over the third quarter, RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria writes. LNG trading improved while its oil trading unit continued its strong run, he adds. The bank's adjusted net income estimate for the three-month period moves to $9.2 billion from $9.3 billion, while its forecast for underlying cash flow from operations rises to $12.3 billion from $12.2 billion. The French energy major's shares rise 0.8% to 80.82 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

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TotalEnergies Update Shows European Refineries Are Outperforming -- Market Talk

0740 GMT - TotalEnergies' third-quarter trading update confirms that European refining exposure has benefited relative to the U.S., Jefferies analyst Mark Wilson writes. The French energy major follows a line of European energy companies posting very strong refining performances, he adds. Overall, TotalEnergies' indicators read well compared with consensus expectations, he says. Shares rise 0.8% to 80.70 euros.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

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Gold Prices Rebound After Wednesday's Slide -- Market Talk

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October 15, 2026 11:08 ET (15:08 GMT)