U.S. Treasury Yields Fall Ahead of CPI Data

By Emese Bartha

Treasury yields fell across the curve in Asian trade on Wednesday as investors await U.S. consumer-price inflation data for September later in the day.

The data, due at 1230 GMT, is a key piece of information for markets ahead of the Federal Reserve's next interest-rate decision on Oct. 28. However, it is unlikely to prompt the Fed to hike rates again, after a 25-basis-point tightening in September.

The two-year Treasury yield fell 1 basis point to 4.782%, while the 10-year Treasury yield declined 1.3 basis points to 5.203%, according to Tradeweb. The 30-year yield eased 0.7 basis points 5.555%.

"Our baseline continues to be that the Fed skips a hike later this month, while hiking again in December," BeiChen Lin, senior investment strategist at Russell Investments, said in a note. "But if there's an upside surprise to inflation amid a backdrop of a market already anxious about price pressures, that could cause the market to revisit the October probabilities, as well as re-assess the terminal rate," he said.

Analysts in The Wall Street Journal's poll expect the headline year-over-year inflation to come in at 3.6% in September, accelerating from 3.4% in August. Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as food and energy, is expected at 2.5% in September after 2.4% in August.

Money markets price in a high 78% probability of unchanged Fed interest rates this month, according to LSEG.

Beyond Wednesday's CPI release, investors will also watch for September producer-price inflation and retail sales data on Thursday and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting on Friday.

"Together, these events could shape the near-term direction of bond yields, the dollar and, consequently, precious metals," Saxo analysts said in a note.

Write to Emese Bartha at emese.bartha@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 14, 2026 02:14 ET (06:14 GMT)