OPEC Cuts Demand Growth Forecast Again as Gulf Supply Risks Mount — Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is down 1.9% at $104.64 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 2.5% at 86.50 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures are down 0.2% at $14,590.50 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are up 0.4% at $4,208.40 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

OPEC Cuts Demand Growth Forecast Again as Gulf Supply Risks Mount

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut this year's forecast for global oil-demand growth again, as escalating attacks on Gulf shipping and Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia raise fresh risks to regional supplies.

The group of oil-rich countries now expects global demand to grow by 180,000 barrels a day, down from 380,000 barrels a day previously. However, it raised its forecast for next year's demand growth to 2.55 million barrels a day, from 2.36 million previously, driven in part by the need to replenish oil inventories depleted by the Iran war.

OTHER STORIES:

Oil Prices Fall as Traders Weigh Middle East Risks, Russian Diesel Supplies

Oil prices fell Tuesday, pulling back after three consecutive sessions of gains as traders weighed persistent Middle East supply risks against prospects for additional Russian diesel exports.

December Brent crude futures fell 1.8% to $104.77 a barrel, while December West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 1.8% to $91.18 a barrel.

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BP's New CEO to Outline Strategy as Balance Sheet Strengthens

BP said it would update its strategy in December, giving new Chief Executive Meg O'Neill her first opportunity to outline her vision for the British energy major to investors.

O'Neill has headed up the company since April this year and inherited a strategy that re-prioritized its traditional oil-and-gas business while paring back spending on renewable energy. Pressure on the company increased when in February last year activist hedge fund Elliott Management took a stake in it.

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Europe Heads Into Winter With Low Gas Reserves, Uncertain Gulf Supplies -- Update

European natural-gas prices climbed to their highest level in nearly four years as escalating attacks in the Middle East threaten supplies and unusually low storage levels raise fears of a global scramble for liquefied natural gas ahead of winter.

The front-month November Dutch TTF natural-gas futures contract--Europe's benchmark--rose 1.8% to 85.85 euros a megawatt-hour Tuesday, its highest level since December 2022. Prices remain well below the 300-euro-a-megawatt-hour level reached during the energy crisis that year, but have surged more than threefold so far in 2026 after shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz stranded nearly a fifth of global LNG flows.

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Surging Middle East Shipping Costs Widen Global Oil Price Gaps, Goldman Says

Oil supply from the Middle East has remained resilient despite escalating tanker attacks, but surging shipping and insurance costs are driving a sharp divergence in crude prices across regions.

The average global crude freight rate has climbed to $30 a barrel, up from $4 a year ago, Goldman Sachs estimates. Rates on Middle Eastern routes have risen to $35 a barrel.

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Enerflex Shares Rise After Contract for Power-Generation Units for Data-Center Development

Shares of Canada's Enerflex climbed premarket after the company was contracted to design, engineer and build over one gigawatt of low-emission behind-the-meter natural gas-fired power-generation units for a large-scale North American data-center development.

Shares in New York were up 7.6% to $25.90 in premarket trading.

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Waterous Energy Plans New Fund With $1 Billion Goal

Private-equity firm Waterous Energy Fund plans to soon begin marketing a new vehicle with a $1 billion anticipated goal to invest in a single business in Canada's oil patch that it can expand through acquisitions.

The Calgary, Alberta-based firm has finished investing its previous pool, Waterous Energy Fund III, which wrapped up last year with 1.4 billion Canadian dollars, equivalent to roughly $980.6 million.

MARKET TALKS:

Palm Oil Rises Amid Rival Oil Strength, Export Demand -- Market Talk

1025 GMT - Palm oil futures closed higher, erasing earlier losses. Prices were supported by firmer soybean oil prices alongside stronger October export demand, despite concerns over elevated domestic inventories, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng sees prices supported around 4,600 ringgit a ton and facing resistance at 4,800 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery rose 45 ringgit to 4,682 ringgit a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

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Eni's Refining Margin Strength Lays Groundwork for Extraordinary Dividend -- Market Talk

1004 GMT - Italian energy major Eni's refining margin tripled quarter-on-quarter and sets the scene for an extraordinary dividend, Jefferies analyst Mark Wilson writes. More than $900 million could be returned via the special dividend, which follows two buyback increases, he says. Shares are flat at 25.41 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

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BP's Impairments Showcase Financial Damage Caused by Previous Strategy -- Market Talk

0856 GMT - BP posts a solid operational performance but impairments continue to come, RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria writes. The British energy major flagged another $3 billion to $4.5 billion of impairments, which combined with prior write downs total nearly $10 billion of charges in the transition businesses, he says. This represents around 10% of BP's equity prior to the pandemic and demonstrates how much financial damage BP's pivot into renewable energy caused, he says. "We would imagine the house is now clean... but we also thought that last quarter...," he writes. Shares 1.1% to 594.70 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

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BP's Strong Update to Push Consensus Views Higher -- Market Talk

0824 GMT - BP's strong third-quarter performance update should push consensus expectations higher, Jefferies analyst Mark Wilson writes. The update paves the way for the British energy major's strategy update in December, he writes. Overall, expectations for underlying RC EBIT and net income should move more than 10% higher on the back of the update, he adds. Shares rise 1.4% to 596 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

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BP's Slated Strategy Update Sooner than Expected -- Market Talk

0817 GMT - BP's planned strategy update in December is earlier than expected, Barclays Lydia Rainforth writes. It will give investors a clearer view of CEO Meg O'Neill's approach after eight months in the role come December, she writes. The British energy major's third-quarter update demonstrates the strength of its trading arm and integrated model, she says. Following the update, Barclays increases its full-year replacement-cost operating profit estimate by around 5% to $11 billion and its adjusted net income estimate by around 20% to $6.5 billion. Shares rise 1.4% to 596 pence.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

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BMI Raises 2026 Copper Price Forecast on Supply Constraints and Tariff Uncertainty -- Market Talk

0812 GMT - BMI raised its average copper price forecast for this year to $13,500 a metric ton from $12,700 a ton, citing tariff-related market disruptions and persistent supply constraints. "For the remainder of 2026, we expect copper prices to remain volatile and highly sensitive to tariff-policy developments, with the eventual Washington decision likely to set the near-term market direction, while broadly intact structural tightness should temper the extent of any correction," analysts at the firm say. Over the longer term, copper prices are expected to be supported by a persistent supply deficit and rising demand as the energy transition gathers pace. BMI forecasts copper prices reaching $17,000 a ton by 2035, driven by electrification and investment in clean-energy infrastructure. In early trading, three-month copper futures on the LME are flat at $14,624.50 a ton. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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BP's Deleveraging Efforts Are Bearing Fruit - Market Talk

0800 GMT - BP's third-quarter trading statement confirms its deleveraging efforts are working, J.P. Morgan's Matthew Lofting writes. The update shows a significant reduction in net debt and should push expectations for earnings and cash flow from operations higher due to a strong trading performance and lower group tax rate, he says. Shares rise 1.46% to 596 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

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European Gas Prices at Highest Since Late 2022 on Winter Supply Concerns -- Market Talk

0733 GMT - European natural-gas prices climb to their highest level since December 2022, with the benchmark Dutch TTF contract up 1.7% to 85.82 euros a megawatt-hour. "The market is grappling with the idea that we're about to go through a large part of the Northern hemisphere winter with little Persian Gulf LNG supply," analysts at ING say. Low European gas storage levels and mandated restocking are supporting prices, raising the risk of stronger competition with Asian buyers and potential price spikes over winter. EU storage is 73% full, according to industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe, below the five-year average of 89%. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Citi Sees Brent Falling Toward $65 in 2027 if Hormuz Reopens -- Market Talk

0731 GMT - Brent crude could fall to $65 a barrel from the second quarter of 2027 if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes and regional energy infrastructure avoids lasting damage, Citi Research says. The bank assigns a 60% probability to its base case, which assumes flows recover in the fourth quarter and Brent declines to $70 in the first quarter of 2027. However, Citi sees a 30% probability of prolonged disruption, particularly to refined-product exports, or further infrastructure damage, which could keep Brent averaging $120 throughout 2027. The bank says the timing of any normalization remains unusually uncertain. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

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Gold Rises As Traders Await U.S. Data -- Market Talk

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October 13, 2026 08:51 ET (12:51 GMT)