Russia Pounds Ukrainian Energy Despite Trump's Ceasefire Announcement — Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is up 2.2% at $106.94 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 3.1% at 83.95 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures are up 0.5% at $14,630.50 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are down 0.6% at $4,191.80 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

Russia Pounds Ukrainian Energy Despite Trump's Ceasefire Announcement

KYIV, Ukraine--Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian strikes had hit energy infrastructure across his country hours after President Trump declared an energy ceasefire between the warring sides.

The Russian attacks--including on gas infrastructure, a power plant and a substation--come as the U.S. heaps pressure on Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil refineries, and after Trump moved to allow Russia to export diesel to the U.S. in a bid to drive down American prices at the pump.

"Last night, Russian oil refineries were not burning. But at midnight, a Russian jet-powered Shahed struck a gas-production facility in Ukraine," Zelensky said in an address to the Warsaw Security Forum on Monday. "And there was also a Russian strike on an ordinary gas station, involving several drones."

OTHER STORIES:

Trump Said Russia Will Release 4.8 Million Tons of Diesel. Is It Enough to Cool Prices?

Moscow's commitment to release 4.8 million tons of diesel into the market is "unlikely to make a substantial difference" to prices, according to Jefferies strategist Mohit Kumar. Here's the breakdown:

The headline number works out to 35.8 million barrels, using the U.S. Energy Information Administration's conversion of 7.46 barrels of middle distillate fuels per metric ton (Trump's announcement didn't specify whether he was talking about metric tons or U.S. short tons, which are a little smaller-let's go with the international benchmark).

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Goldman Sees Brent at $90 in December as Supply Risks Delay Price Relief

Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude forecast for December to $90 a barrel from $85, warning that persistent supply risks could keep oil prices elevated even as producers in the Persian Gulf adapt to disruptions.

The bank estimates that geopolitical tensions are adding just over $20 a barrel to oil prices, as reflected in the premium traders pay for near-term supplies over futures for later delivery. That premium should ease as Gulf production recovers, though more slowly than previously expected.

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Oil Prices Fall as Traders Weigh Russian Diesel Deal, Middle East Supply Risks

Oil prices fell Monday as traders weighed prospects for increased Russian diesel supplies and a potential Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire against persistent Middle East supply risks.

December Brent crude futures fell 0.2% to $104.53 a barrel, while December West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 0.4% to $90.69 a barrel.

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TotalEnergies, KKR Add to Joint Venture With $1.2 Billion Solar-Assets Deal

France's TotalEnergies and private-equity firm KKR agreed to add 700 megawatts of solar power to their renewable-energy joint venture in a $1.2 billion deal, including debt.

The deal for the three solar assets located in Texas and Ohio adds to their 1.4 gigawatt joint-venture portfolio, which they created in a 2025.

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Oil Majors Ramp Up Production After Hurricane Isaias Passes Through Gulf of Mexico

Oil majors have begun ramping up oil production and returning personnel to offshore rigs in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Isaias passed through.

Chevron said over the weekend that it is redeploying personnel to its platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, which the U.S. now calls Gulf of America, and restoring full production. The American oil major had temporarily curbed production at five facilities.

MARKET TALKS:

Limited Impact Seen from U.S.-Russia Diesel Agreement -- Market Talk

0954 ET - The impact on diesel prices after the U.S. lifted sanctions against Russian diesel will probably be limited, with most of it seen in Friday's retreat, Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. The most likely effect will be a slowdown in U.S. distillate exports later this month, the firm says. "But U.S. diesel exports have already tapered off in recent weeks after posting a record high in early August." U.S. diesel futures are off 0.4% at $4.7205 a gallon. Oil futures are higher with the market focused on stepped-up Houthi attacks against Saudi targets, while keeping an eye on diplomatic efforts around the conflicts between the U.S. and Iran, and Russia and Ukraine.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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Grains Mixed as Market Continues to Digest WASDE -- Market Talk

0937 ET - Last week's WASDE report is still being pored over by analysts to start this week, with the USDA closed in observance of Columbus Day/Indigenous People's Day. The report showed higher corn yields and production than anticipated by analysts, which sent corn futures plummeting. But corn is now up, rising 0.3%. "[We're] largely seeing a reversal from Friday's post-WASDE trade, with a multitude of corn tenders announced after the break lower in prices," says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. Soybeans fall 0.3%, and wheat is down 0.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

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Renewed Houthi Attacks Raise Risk of Brent Above $120 a Barrel -- Market Talk

1400 GMT - The latest Houthi attacks on Riyadh raise the risk of renewed disruptions to energy flows from Saudi Arabia and potentially other parts of the region too, Capital Economics' Jason Tuvey says in a note. Any retaliation by Saudi or allied forces could lead to a re-intensification and broadening of the current conflict in the Middle East, he says. That could include a halt to the ship-to-ship transfers that have allowed significant quantities of crude to leave the Gulf recently. Further damage to refineries would keep refined product prices high, such as gasoline and diesel. "All of that would push us closer to an adverse scenario for global energy markets that envisages Brent crude rising to at least $120 per barrel," Tuvey says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

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Palm Oil Rises; Upward Trend to Persist -- Market Talk

1030 GMT - Palm oil ended higher despite MPOB data showing end-September stocks in Malaysia rising 25% on month to 3.5 million tons. Inventory reached historic highs at the end of last month, driven by strong production, but it is expected to be fleeting, Citi Research analyst Gan Huan Wen writes in a note. Lower yields due to the El Nino weather phenomenon, along with a low production season from January, will deplete inventories and drive crude palm oil prices higher, Gan adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery rose 46 ringgit to 4,638 ringgit a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

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Oil Tanker Rates Surge Amid Rising Attacks, Longer Voyages -- Market Talk

0924 GMT - Oil tanker freight rates have surged as rising attacks and longer shipping routes squeeze vessel availability in the Middle East, according to ANZ. The cost of chartering a very large crude carrier to ship oil from the Persian Gulf to China has climbed to nearly $1 million a day from about $230,000 on the eve of the war, ANZ says, citing shipping-data provider Clarkson. Freight costs have also surged on other routes, with one U.S. tanker cargo booked last week at $41 a barrel. Meanwhile, second-hand tanker prices have risen to a record $240 million. "A shortage of the tankers needed to ship oil has emerged as a key constraint on Middle East oil flows, raising questions about the sustainability of recent export gains and increasing the risk of supply disruptions in the months ahead," ANZ analysts say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows Slumped Late Last Week as Tanker Attacks Fuel Volatility -- Market Talk

0849 GMT - Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain well below prewar levels, with confirmed volumes averaging 10.5 million barrels a day in the seven days to Oct. 10, about 38% below the prewar baseline of 17.1 million barrels a day, according to Kpler data. Confirmed flows fell to 2 million barrels a day on Oct. 10, from 6.7 million on Oct. 9 and 22.8 million on Oct. 8, underscoring significant daily volatility. The latest figures are preliminary and might be revised higher as additional tanker movements are confirmed, according to the data firm. The data excludes Iranian-origin transits. Increased attacks on tankers and elevated maritime risks continue to disrupt shipping through the key oil-export route, keeping daily Gulf flows volatile, while high freight rates are expected to persist through the fourth quarter, Kpler says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Diesel Supply Measures Might Not Be Welcomed by Refiners -- Market Talk

0842 GMT - Diesel releases from European strategic reserves and increased Russian diesel supplies to the U.S. could ease pressure on pump prices but squeeze refiners already facing high crude and shipping costs, according to Sparta Commodities. Refiners have relied on unusually strong diesel margins to offset expensive feedstock, but additional supplies could push prices lower and erode profitability. The risk is that weaker margins prompt refiners to cut processing rates, limiting future fuel production. "These diesel releases could upset that balance for refiners," says Aaron Kildow from Sparta. "If the issue is compounded by another period of limited flows from the Red Sea and Hormuz, it could cause real pain for refiners." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Copper Rises on China Stimulus Hopes, Mining Supply Risks -- Market Talk

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October 12, 2026 10:35 ET (14:35 GMT)