Goldman Sees Brent at $90 in December as Supply Risks Delay Price Relief

By Giulia Petroni

Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude forecast for December to $90 a barrel from $85, warning that persistent supply risks could keep oil prices elevated even as producers in the Persian Gulf adapt to disruptions.

The bank estimates that geopolitical tensions are adding just over $20 a barrel to oil prices, as reflected in the premium traders pay for near-term supplies over futures for later delivery. That premium should ease as Gulf production recovers, though more slowly than previously expected.

"Our base case doesn't assume a quick and sustained diplomatic resolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict," analysts at Goldman said. "The risk premium also took about three quarters to come down sharply in 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine."

Goldman kept its Brent forecast at $80 a barrel for 2027, saying it expects the market to move into surplus from the fourth quarter of this year as Middle East output adapts to disruptions and higher prices weigh on global demand.

Still, risks are skewed to the upside. Brent could average about $125 a barrel next year if Persian Gulf production remains 5 million barrels a day below prewar levels--compared with a 300,000-barrels-a-day shortfall in the bank's baseline scenario--due to further damage to oil infrastructure or intensified attacks on shipping.

Conversely, Brent could fall into the $60s in 2027 if Persian Gulf production rises 1 million barrels a day above February levels.

The bank expects U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate to remain unusually low relative to Brent, reflecting elevated shipping costs between the U.S. and Europe. It forecasts WTI at $81 a barrel in December, up from $80 previously, and $73 in 2027, down from $75.

Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 12, 2026 04:18 ET (08:18 GMT)