Soybean Futures Drop With Chinese Demand Seen as Lacking — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

-Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.9% to $12.86 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, following soy products lower as confirmation of purchases from China following the U.S.-China summit are scant.

-Corn for December delivery fell 0.5% to $4.99 3/4 a bushel.

-Wheat for December delivery fell 0.4% to $6.83 1/2 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Missing in Action: Soybean futures led the CBOT grains complex lower on a general lack of fresh new Chinese demand confirmed by the USDA, said Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. That includes either morning flash sales, or less-than-hoped-for sales in the weekly report. Soymeal futures also fell, while soybean oil futures were supported by higher crude oil futures.

Getting in Order: Traders were seen getting in position ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report from the USDA. "Typically, in the October report, the USDA will make minor changes, and trade estimates are looking for a slight yield reduction," said Cory Bratland of AgMarket.net in a note. With fund traders still holding big net long positions in grains, particularly in corn, some traders may be considering liquidating if the WASDE yields a negative surprise, like larger ending stock projections or larger production outlooks.

World Impact: The dollar index was higher in morning trade, pairing with highs reached in Treasury yields putting pressure on grain futures and other commodities. A stronger dollar makes U.S. grain exports less competitive on the world market. "Outside markets are increasingly important -- and mostly negative for grains," said Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull in a note. However, the dollar turned weaker in afternoon trading, alleviating some of that pressure.

INSIGHT

Winter Disruptor: El Niño is getting stronger, said the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. It's now more than likely that the system will continue to be a stronger-than-usual condition into January through March 2027, the agency said in an update. This widens the window for when extra-severe weather events may take place due to El Niño. "With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed," said the Climate Prediction Center in its update. The agency adds that in some places, El Niño is raising water temperatures by as much as 4 degrees Celsius in areas of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Slack Showing: Export sales of U.S. corn and soybeans reported by the Department of Agriculture landed on the low side of forecasts from analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. The USDA said corn export sales for the week ended Oct. 1 totaled 769,500 metric tons for the 2026-27 marketing year, while soybean sales landed at 549,400 tons for the marketing year. Both totals were on the lower side of analyst forecasts for the week. Wheat sales for the week totaled 451,600 tons, which is on the higher side of analyst forecasts for the week.

AHEAD

-The USDA will release its monthly WASDE report at noon ET Friday.

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

-The USDA will be closed in observance of Columbus Day/Indigenous People's Day on Monday, reopening on Tuesday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 08, 2026 15:35 ET (19:35 GMT)