Oil Prices Fall as G-7 Plans Crude, Diesel Release But Hormuz Shipping Risks Persist — Update

By Farhan Rafid

Oil prices fell Monday as traders weighed a planned release of emergency oil and diesel stocks by the Group of Seven countries against renewed attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and persistent Middle East supply risks.

December Brent crude futures fell 0.2% to $102.80 a barrel, while December West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 1.2% to $88.40 a barrel.

The G-7 countries agreed Friday to implement a coordinated release through the International Energy Agency of 100 million barrels of crude oil and fuel over four months, including a substantial diesel release in the first 20 days. The group also pledged not to restrict energy exports between member countries.

The IEA said around 325 million barrels of the 400 million barrels pledged under its collective action announced in March have so far been released. While Middle East crude exports have recovered significantly, refined-product flows remain severely constrained, particularly diesel, the agency said.

A staggered release of European fuel stocks could help ease pressure through the winter, but any effect on prices may be short-lived because global markets remain tight and there is little clarity over when Middle Eastern and Russian supplies will normalize, Eleanor Budds at S&P Global Energy CERA said.

Saudi Aramco cut the official selling price for November shipments of its Arab Light crude to Asia by $3 a barrel, widening its discount to the Oman/Dubai benchmark to $5 a barrel. The move came as crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover, while freight costs remained elevated.

Middle East crude availability is recovering, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but continued tanker attacks, infrastructure disruptions and vessels operating without visible tracking signals leave export flows vulnerable, MUFG analysts said Monday. Saudi Arabia's latest crude-price cuts also point to improving supply conditions, they said.

Separately, BMI, the country-risk and industry-research arm of Fitch Solutions, raised its average Brent crude forecast for this year to $93 a barrel from $83 and said a preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement is unlikely before the first quarter of next year. Continued disruptions to regional oil flows and supply constraints linked to the Russia-Ukraine war could keep upward pressure on prices over the next three to six months, BMI said.

Meanwhile, seven members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed Sunday to keep production levels steady in November.

OPEC's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee separately expressed concern over attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to international maritime routes, saying they threaten supply availability and increase market volatility.

Despite those risks, Saudi Arabia is loading crude from both its Persian Gulf and Red Sea coasts as regional exports recover. Saudi crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz climbed from around 1.4 million barrels a day in late August to around 4.1 million barrels a day last week, Kpler ship-tracking data showed. The kingdom's East-West pipeline has also returned to flows of around 5.5 million barrels a day after being shut in mid-September following drone attacks, leaving roughly 4 million barrels a day available for export from the Red Sea port of Yanbu, Kpler estimated. Yanbu loadings are expected to return to preattack levels by November, Kpler analysts said.

However, the recovery in export flows remains vulnerable to renewed shipping disruptions. U.K. Maritime Trade Operations said Sunday that a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unknown projectile, damaging its engine room. The crew was reported safe and no environmental impact was reported.

The latest attack came amid a renewed wave of incidents threatening the recent recovery in Middle East crude exports. Seven vessel attacks have been reported around the strait since Sept. 28, The Wall Street Journal reported. Gulf producers had pushed crude shipments back toward prewar levels using shuttle tankers and alternative export routes.

Write to Farhan Rafid at @farhan.rafid@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 05, 2026 09:49 ET (13:49 GMT)