G-7 Agrees to Release 100 Million Barrels of -2-

1004 GMT - Glencore could beat its new marketing unit forecast this year given the current environment, RBC analyst Ben Davis writes. He cites volatility, supply chain disruption and refining margins. The miner and commodity trader raised its guidance for marketing adjusted EBIT this year to over $5 billion compared with previous guidance of around $4.9 billion. It also raised its longer-term guidance for the metric to between $2.8 billion and $4.2 billion from $2.3 billion to $3.5 billion. RBC estimates 2026 marketing EBIT of $5.4 billion compared with consensus of $5.18 billion. Davis adds that the more important driver for the stock is the multiple attached to a trading business. RBC has an outperform rating on the stock and 660 pence target price. Shares are up 1.7% at 554.50 pence, and 38% higher over the year-to-date. (ian.walker@wsj.com)

--

Natural Gas Moves Lower as EIA Reports Record-High Production -- Market Talk

1003 ET - Natural gas is down 0.3%, retreating under the $3 per-mmBtu mark after the EIA reported that in July, U.S. natural gas production reached a record high. The agency says that July production landed at 137 billion cubic feet a day, continuing the gradual and stable run-up in natural gas production seen since 2010. This new record replaces the record set after 5 months of new record-highs in 2025, says the EIA. Mild weather has been a factor pressing on natural gas futures today, with electrical power demand seen as limited. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

--

Crude Oil Falls To Close Out the Week -- Market Talk

0947 ET - Crude oil futures are sliding as more barrels of oil move through the Strait of Hormuz, although the risk of new military incursions remains strong. "The underlying picture remains fragmented," says Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank in a note. On the one hand, Saudi Arabian crude oil exports picked up in late September, but on the other is the present threat of further U.S. strikes on Middle Eastern infrastructure. "The U.S. decision to send another carrier group towards the region underlines why improving flows have yet to remove the market's risk premium," says Hansen. WTI crude is down 4% to $89.22 a barrel, while Brent crude falls 2.7% to $99.56 a barrel. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

--

Gold Climbs on U.S. Jobs Report Miss -- Market Talk

0905 ET - Gold futures jumped following the release of the September Non-Farm Payrolls report and the latest unemployment figures by the Labor Department - with the number of jobs added coming in well below analyst expectations. The miss has Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower, in turn buoying other assets like gold. It's part of a repricing of inflation risk, says Artem Bakushev of Monaxa in a note. "The Fed focused on yesterday's inflation problem, while today's labour data is showing the cost of staying too tight for too long," says Bakushev. Most-active gold is up 1.1% to $4,248 a troy ounce. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

--

Oil Falls 1% Despite Middle East Escalation Fears -- Market Talk

0740 GMT - Oil prices ease on signs that Gulf crude exports are recovering, although tensions in the region remain elevated amid concerns over further military action and attacks on shipping. In early European trading, front-month Brent crude for December is down 1% at $101.26 a barrel, while WTI futures slide 1.8% to $91.24 a barrel. According to The Wall Street Journal, the Pentagon is sending a third aircraft-carrier strike group and additional Marine Corps ships to the Middle East as President Trump considers renewing strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. Meanwhile, physical prices remain elevated as the market worries the U.S. might soon impose a ban on diesel exports. "Tight distillate markets, reduced refined-product availability and uncertainty around Middle East shipping continue to support prices, but any evidence of stronger supply flows can quickly trigger profit-taking," says Naeem Aslam from Zaye Capital Markets. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

--

BHP's New Bull More Upbeat on Copper -- Market Talk

0638 GMT - BofA Securities turns bullish on BHP, citing an improved outlook for copper prices. It raises its share-price target on BHP to 68 Australian dollars from A$65 and upgrades the stock to buy from neutral. That follows a 20% lift in its long-term copper price forecast to US$13,577/metric ton. BofA views a site visit to BHP's Australian copper operations in November as a key catalyst. "We expect the site visit to give the market greater confidence in the ramp-up of mined volumes," it says. Shares ended up 1.6% at A$61.21. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

--

Lynas Deal For Meteoric to Help With Heavy Rare Earths Expansion -- Market Talk

0453 GMT - Lynas's planned acquisition of Meteoric Resources appears to be at least initially about securing heavy rare-earths supply for its expanding Malaysia refining plant, says UBS. The bank says the deal demonstrates the increased interest in Brazil for rare earths. It says it's "mindful the potential (risk and/or opportunity) for further LYC investment in the region, particularly around refining capacity." UBS trims its share-price target on Lynas to A$21.00 from A$22.50. That reflects the deal and capex required to develop Meteoric's Caldeira project, it says. The bank keeps a buy rating. Shares in Lynas are up 0.6% at A$12.72, after falling by 8.6% Thursday on the takeover news. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

--

Palm Oil Falls, Weighed by Lower Soybean Oil Prices -- Market Talk

0302 GMT - Palm oil falls in Asian trading, tracking overnight declines in soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade. Technical analysis suggests the outlook for crude palm oil futures remains bearish, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. However, global vegetable oil prices could rise in the coming months due to tighter supply as disruptions to Black Sea sunflower oil shipments coincide with declining South American soyoil exports, it adds. AmInvestment Bank sees resistance at 4,611 ringgit a ton and support at 4,512 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery is down 36 ringgit at 4,518 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

--

Copper Flat as Tight Supply Offset by Stronger Dollar -- Market Talk

0157 GMT - Copper prices are flat in early Asian trade. Although tight supply and resilient demand continue to support prices, a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields are limiting the upside. Copper concentrate supply remains tight, putting pressure on smelters' margins, and tighter domestic scrap availability has helped keep refined-copper inventories low, Minmetals Futures analysts say in a note. The U.S.-London copper spread also remains elevated on expectations of potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper, they add. The three-month LME copper contract is flat at $14,243.00 a ton.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

--

Gold Falls; U.S. Dollar, Yields Key Obstacles for Price Gain -- Market Talk

0054 GMT - Gold falls in early Asian trade. The dollar and Treasury yields are currently the main obstacles to gold returning to its broader bullish path, says Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com. Moderating inflation creates an opportunity for gold, but economic resilience and elevated yields are preventing a decisive breakout, Massabni adds. "The real turning point will not come from a single day of price action, but from markets sustainably repricing the path of U.S. monetary policy," Massabni says. Spot gold is 0.4% lower at $4,160.68 a troy ounce, taking weekly losses to nearly 3%. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

--

Rio Tinto Best Bet for Those Constructive Iron Ore, Cautious Copper, Bull Says -- Market Talk

0001 GMT - Rio Tinto is the cleanest way to be long iron ore and cautious on copper while keeping exposure to growth in the base metal, Macquarie says. It upgrades the stock to outperform from neutral. "Rio is still iron-ore anchored (circa 50% of segment earnings for CY27), so it captures our view on a near-term recovery in the commodity, but it also has genuine, growing copper exposure," says the bank. Copper accounted for roughly 27% of group Ebitda in 2025, and could rise to about 36% by the end of the decade, it says. "Critically, it [Rio] has lagged BHP by circa 20% year to date, so investors buy iron ore leverage plus copper growth without paying BHP's copper 'tourist' premium," Macquarie says. It keeps a neutral rating on BHP. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

Write to Barcelona Editors at barcelonaeditors@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 02, 2026 12:11 ET (16:11 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.