Soybean Futures Fall on Speculation Over Chinese Stocks — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

--Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.8% to $12.83 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Thursday, turning lower on speculation about Chinese demand post-summit.

--Corn for December delivery rose 0.3% to $5.02 a bushel.

--Wheat for December rose 0.9% to $6.81 3/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Demand Dragging: China is rumored to be sitting on large inventories of soybeans, with crushing margins unprofitable for refiners there. This is the rationale used to explain why China hasn't purchased much in the way of U.S. soybeans since the Trump-Xi summit in Washington last week. "Soybeans are seeing additional pressure from reports China crushers are sitting on large stocks and Chinese crush margins are dropping," said Karl Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting.

Cutting Exposure: Managed money traders were seen today trimming the size of the net long positions they hold in grain futures to open trading in October, said Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions. "The biggest issue the grains are facing today is margin call type selling from traders, including the funds as increased margin requirements are forcing them to pare down positions," said Hoops. Fund traders accumulated large net long positions in grains in recent months, according to CFTC data.

INSIGHT

Mix of Issues: Regions where corn and soybeans are being planted in Brazil are either receiving ample rainfall or facing drought, according to analysts. The Super El Niño that's growing in strength appears to be exaggerating the weather being received in these crop-growing areas - affecting not only row crops, but soft commodities like coffee as well. "One area needs relief from the heat," said Jim Roemer with WeatherWealth in a note. "Another could use a break from the watering can - for the developing 2027 crop, the timing matters enormously." Soybeans and first-crop corn are being planted in Brazil currently.

No Normalization: The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine isn't expected to be resolved until some point after 2027, said SovEcon in a note this week. As a result, the firm has reduced its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 4.7 million metric tons to 36.7 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year. That's 20% below last year, says the firm - and the lowest since 2021/22, said SovEcon.

Rebound from Yesterday: CBOT corn bounced on weakness seen following the USDA's quarterly stocks report. "Yesterday's report was bearish," said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. "Convenient for the USDA to find more old crop corn--lots more old crop corn." But the selling may have been overdone, at least in the short-term.

AHEAD

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 01, 2026 15:49 ET (19:49 GMT)