North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Mostly Up, Yields Pause Climb

Stock futures were mostly higher Wednesday.

Oil prices are up, reversing earlier losses, amid signs of a continued recovery in Persian Gulf crude exports easing some supply concerns.

Bond yields eased, after markets significantly scaled back expectations of Fed rate rises following New York Fed President John Williams' comments, pausing the climb in Treasury yields.

Money markets currently see a 45% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in October, while the odds of such a move stood at 70% on Monday, according to LSEG data.

For the day ahead, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to release August's personal consumption expenditures price index and its third estimate of second-quarter economic data at 8:30 a.m.

The data will give a further indication on the rate outlook.

However, a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report on Friday "might actually be temporary bad news for markets as it could reinforce the need for another rate hike this year," Russell Investments said.

Stocks to Watch

Boeing secured a contract valued at more than $20 billion from the U.S. Navy to build its next-generation jet fighter. Its stock rose more than 3%.

Robinhood unveiled a slew of new tools and services including an in-app AI agent late yesterday. Shares climbed more than 2%.

Watch For:

ADP National Employment Report for September, 2Q GDP Third Estimate, Personal Income and Outlays for August, Chicago Business Barometer Chicago Business Survey, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- Tech Giants Face Questions Over Secret AI Data-Center Deals

- Flight to Israel Makes Emergency Landing in Saudi Arabia After Steep Dive

- The Gap Between the Rich and the Very, Very Rich Is Getting Wider

MARKET WRAPS Forex:

The dollar eased after reaching a two-month high Tuesday after softer-than-anticipated data and Fed speeches lowered expectations for U.S. interest-rate rises.

Bitcoin fell as continued uncertainty over the Middle East conflict kept investors cautious over risky assets.

The euro is unlikely to weaken much further after reaching a 16-month low against the dollar on Tuesday, ING said.

Sterling rose to a one-month high against the euro after data showed the U.K. economy grew more than previously estimated in the second quarter.

Bonds:

Treasury yields declined in early trade, retreating from Tuesday's highs, as Fed speakers mitigated interest-rate hike expectations.

Energy:

Oil prices fell as investors weighed uncertainty over U.S.-Iran talks and a recent pickup in Middle East crude exports.

"For now, that reduces fears of an immediate crude shortage and explains why prices can fall even though talks between the U.S. and Iran have made no clear progress," XS.com said.

Metals:

Gold prices rose more than 1% as Treasury yields retreated.

Uranium prices are heading higher over the medium term which could push prices over $100 a pound by the end of the year, Berenberg said.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Apple Launches Mobile Payment Services in India

Apple has launched its mobile payment services in India, entering one of the world's fastest-growing markets for cashless transactions.

Users in India can now use Apple Pay on iPhones, iPads and Apple Watches via a partnership with Axis Bank, one of the largest private-sector lenders in the country.

China Has the Power to Bail Out the Diesel Market. Will It Use It?

China helped keep a lid on global oil prices this year when it cut crude imports.

In theory, it also has the power to cool high diesel prices and potentially even avert the need for a messy U.S. diesel export ban. But the odds that China will bail out the fuel market today look lower than they were back in 2022-the last time it stepped in to cool sky-high diesel prices.

French, Italian Inflation Reach Multiyear Highs

French and Italian inflation climbed to multiyear highs this month, reflecting enduring energy-price pressures that could push European Central Bank policymakers to raise interest rates again next month.

In France, consumer prices were 3.4% higher in September than the same month last year, up from 2.6% in August. In Italy, inflation was at 4.1% from 3.2% in August. Both readings, based on data harmonized to European Union standards, were higher than expected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

How the Pentagon Is Escalating Trump's Drug War in Latin America

One year after it began striking boats suspected of ferrying drugs, the Pentagon is dramatically expanding the military's role in tracking drug cartels across Latin America and the Caribbean, deploying high-tech drones to map smuggling networks and sending U.S. troops to assist in ground raids.

The top general in charge-a Marine four-star who spent years disrupting terror networks in the Middle East-said in a recent interview that the goal is to help countries in the region step up antidrug operations with U.S. assistance.

The U.S. Military Exits Iraq, Leaving Behind a Nation in Peril

BAGHDAD-After spending more than 23 years and $1.7 trillion, America is winding down what critics have called its forever war in Iraq, closing the last major U.S. military base on Wednesday.

"We don't think we need the military there anymore," President Trump said during a White House visit by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi in July. "We have a fantastic champion, a new champion," the president said. "He's young, and he's handsome."

Trump Defends Light-Touch AI Strategy After Industry Sounds Alarms

WASHINGTON-President Trump promised not to hamper the artificial-intelligence industry with regulations, doubling down Tuesday on his light-touch approach despite growing calls from Silicon Valley and the public for new guardrails.

"I will never stifle the growth of technology that will be bigger than the industrial revolution," he said at an event to unveil a new America.gov website built with AI to make it easier for citizens to access federal government services. The Justice Department, Federal Bureau of Investigation and existing authorities are sufficient to hold accountable bad actors using AI for nefarious purposes, he said.

Write to nina.kienle@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA Earnings:

Nothing major scheduled.

Economic Indicators (ET):

Canada: National Day for Truth and Reconciliation

Stocks to Watch:

Yancoal: NSW Independent Planning Commission Approves Hunter Valley Operations Continuation Project; Project to Extend Mining at HVO Mining Complex Until End-2045; HVO Project Also Requires Australian Government Approval By Dec. 31

Expected Major Events for Wednesday 01:00/JPN: Aug Steel Imports & Exports Statistics

04:30/JPN: Aug Preliminary Report on Petroleum Statistics

05:00/JPN: Aug Housing Starts

05:00/JPN: Aug Construction Orders

06:00/UK: 2Q Balance of Payments

06:00/UK: 2Q Business investment revised results

06:00/UK: 2Q UK quarterly national accounts

06:00/GER: Aug Foreign trade price indices

06:00/GER: Aug Retail Trade

06:45/FRA: Aug PPI

06:45/FRA: Aug Household consumption expenditure in manufactured goods

06:45/FRA: Sep Provisional CPI

07:55/GER: Sep Labour market statistics (incl unemployment)

08:00/ITA: Sep Consumer Confidence Survey

08:00/ITA: Sep Business Confidence Survey

08:00/GER: Sep Brandenburg CPI

08:00/GER: Sep Bavaria CPI

08:00/GER: Sep North Rhine Westphalia CPI

08:00/GER: Sep Saxony CPI

08:00/GER: Sep Hesse CPI

08:00/GER: Sep Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI

09:00/ITA: Sep Provisional CPI

09:00/ITA: Sep Cities CPI

11:00/US: 09/25 MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

12:00/GER: Sep Provisional CPI

12:15/US: Sep ADP National Employment Report

12:30/US: 2Q Revised Corporate Profits

12:30/US: 2Q 3rd estimate GDP

12:30/US: Aug Advance Economic Indicators Report

12:30/US: 2Q State Quarterly Personal Income

12:30/US: Aug Personal Income and Outlays

12:30/US: 2Q GDP by State

13:45/US: Sep Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey Chicago PMI

14:00/US: Aug Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment

14:30/US: 09/25 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

23:01/UK: CBI Financial Services Survey

23:50/JPN: 3Q Tankan Survey of Enterprises in Japan

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Expected Earnings for Wednesday Bassett Furniture Industries Inc (BSET) is expected to report $0.12 for 3Q.

Bio-Path Holdings Inc (BPTH) is expected to report for 2Q.

Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) is expected to report $-0.77 for 1Q.

Conagra Brands Inc (CAG) is expected to report $0.29 for 1Q.

Factset Research Systems Inc (FDS) is expected to report $3.88 for 4Q.

Jabil Inc (JBL) is expected to report $3.39 for 4Q.

Micron Technology Inc (MU) is expected to report $31.36 for 4Q.

Obsidian Therapeutics Inc (OBX) is expected to report for 2Q.

Progress Software Corp (PRGS) is expected to report $0.38 for 3Q.

Taylor Devices Inc (TAYD) is expected to report $0.82 for 1Q.

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ANALYST RATINGS ACTIONS Arbor Realty Trust Cut to Market Perform From Market Outperform by Citizens

BlackRock TCP Capital Raised to Equal-Weight From Underweight by Wells Fargo

Bloomin' Brands Raised to Neutral From Underweight by JP Morgan

Carlyle Secured Lending Cut to Equal-Weight From Overweight by Wells Fargo

FS KKR Capital Cut to Underweight From Equal-Weight by Wells Fargo

Inspired Entertainment Cut to Neutral From Buy by BWS Financial

Lifecore Biomedical Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by Barrington Research

Main Street Capital Raised to Overweight From Equal-Weight by Wells Fargo

Netflix Raised to Buy From Hold by Deutsche Bank

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September 30, 2026 06:14 ET (10:14 GMT)

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