Stock Futures Rise as Oil Prices, Rate Hike Bets Ease

By Joe Stonor

U.S. stock futures rose as market sentiment strengthened in early European trade, with investors checking expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes and bracing for inflation data later Wednesday.

Oil prices extended recent declines on signs that Middle East crude exports are recovering toward prewar levels, despite the absence of clear progress in U.S.-Iran talks. Most-traded Brent crude contracts for December delivery fell 0.8% to $95.34 a barrel, easing pressure on Treasury yields and helping out energy-sensitive stocks.

Treasury yields pulled back from Tuesday's highs, when the 30-year yield hit its highest level since 2002. Yields on 30-year Treasurys currently sit around 5.55%, while 10-year Treasury yields slipped but held above 5.210%.

Two-year yields fell after dovish comments from influential Fed policymaker John Williams--paired with lower oil prices--prompted markets to temper expectations for a rate hike in October. Markets are now pricing a 57% likelihood that the Fed holds, according to LSEG. Prior to Williams's speech markets had priced in around a 70% chance of a hike.

U.S. PCE inflation data--the Fed's preferred inflation metric--for August will likely drive rate expectations Wednesday, as well as interventions from a bevy of Fed policymakers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the best performing major index in the U.S. futures market, as investors hope to close out a volatile quarter in the green. Futures for the Dow rose 0.5%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%. Nasdaq futures added 0.2%. Earnings from chip maker Micron after the close will help shape sentiment around artificial-intelligence investments.

European and Asia stocks also broadly strengthened, with Japan's Nikkei Stock Average gaining 3%, while the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 added 0.7% in early trade.

The dollar was little moved as bitcoin slipped slightly to around $83,400, while gold recovered back above $4,200 a troy ounce in New York.

Write to Joe Stonor at josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 30, 2026 04:58 ET (08:58 GMT)