U.S. Treasury Yields Edge Higher, Hover Near Recent Highs

By Emese Bartha

U.S. Treasury yields edged higher in Asian trade on Tuesday but remained slightly below Monday's multiyear peaks.

The recent leg of the rise in yields has been triggered by a stalemate between the U.S. and Iran around the terms of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, even as a growing number of tankers are crossing the waterway.

Yields remain under upward pressure from energy prices "as the U.S. and Iran appear to be stuck in their negotiations," Antti Ilvonen, senior fixed income and FX analyst at Danske Bank, said in a note.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.3 basis points on the day to 5.254%, hovering close to Monday's peak of 5.274%--the highest level since June 2007, according to Tradeweb. The 30-year Treasury yield edged up 0.2 basis points at 5.561%, below Monday's peak of 5.583%--a level last seen in 2002.

High oil prices are fueling market expectations of further interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve following one earlier in September. Money markets currently price in 100 basis points of Fed rate hikes over a 12-month horizon, according to LSEG.

Front-month Brent for November was last up 2.2% at $107.55 a barrel.

However, analysts say high yields also reflect the strength of the U.S. economy.

"The surge in the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 5.25% reflects higher oil prices and a strong U.S. economy more than AI debt issuance or fiscal concerns," said James Reilly, senior markets economist at Capital Economics.

The current yield levels suggest to several market participants that the selloff has potentially gone too far.

In the 30-year maturity, "oversold conditions persist, but we are now left waiting for renewed evidence that would suggest the market is starting to respond to those conditions after we were stopped out of our long trade last week," J.P. Morgan strategists said in a note.

Write to Emese Bartha at emese.bartha@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 29, 2026 02:18 ET (06:18 GMT)