Soybean Futures Fall on Rush of Liquidations — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

--Soybeans for November delivery fell 2.3% to $13.02 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Monday, with traders selling into the sizable net-long positions held by fund traders according to the CFTC.

--Wheat for December fell 2.3% to $$7.01 3/4 a bushel.

--Corn for December delivery fell 1.2% to $5.35 3/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Sour Sentiment: Row crops on the CBOT fell in early trading. "Grains are falling like a hot knife thru butter...so much for the 'the U.S. farmer will be very happy'," said Gary Sandlund of Futures International in a note. Sandlund attributes the weakness in grains to a general lack of news out of last week's U.S.-China summit. One of the only tangible outcomes from the meeting was the U.S. and China agreeing to a $30 billion reciprocal tariff reduction.

Going Liquid: CBOT grain futures liquidated long holdings throughout the day, trading out of the sizable long positions reported by the CFTC in Friday's Commitment of Traders report. "Chicago corn, soybean, and wheat futures are liquidating into the end of September and the NASS Final Small Grain and Stocks report on Wednesday," said AgResource. The firm adds that "[we look] for a trading bottom in the next 48 hours followed by a rally that does not peak until mid-November."

Tit for Tat: Deep divides still remain in U.S./China relations following last week's summit between President Trump and Chinese leader XI. Tariff cuts on goods under the U.S.-China Board of Trade mechanism, the so-called "30-for-30" lists of products, are good for trade between the two nations, said Leah Fahy of Capital Economics in a note. But it doesn't make the trading relationship between the two much stronger, she added. "All told, while Xi's trip to the U.S. delivered slightly more than it first seemed, the gains were modest and largely in line with pre-summit expectations," said Fahy. "With the truce on a short leash and congressional hawkishness showing no signs of fading, the U.S.-China relationship remains fragile."

INSIGHT

Deceptively Quiet: The Sept. 30 quarterly stocks report from the USDA "looks quiet on paper," said Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull in a note. But while forecasts for the report are relatively steady, the price action on the CBOT following the report may be strong. That's because of several factors seen heading into the report, explained Wiesemeyer. "The September report rarely lands on USDA, its errors carry straight into new-crop supply, and funds are positioned near a record long," he said.

Weathering the Strong El Niño: The strengthening El Niño conditions as winter approaches has analysts expecting mild and wet conditions that can hurt corn being harvested and early winter wheat planting. Combined with ongoing supply chain issues making fertilizer harder to come by for U.S. farmers, grain futures are expected to reflect this with higher prices. "In our view, markets continue to underestimate the cumulative impact of these overlapping supply shocks, leaving stock-to-use ratios vulnerable to further tightening and agricultural prices skewed to the upside," says analysts with Citi Research in a note.

AHEAD

--The USDA will release its monthly Agricultural Prices report at 3 p.m. ET Tuesday.

--Cal-Maine Foods Inc. will release its first-quarter 2027 results at 6 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--Conagra Brands Inc. will release its first-quarter 2027 results before the stock market opens Wednesday.

--The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its quarterly Grain Stocks report at noon ET Wednesday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 28, 2026 15:08 ET (19:08 GMT)