North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Fall, Oil and Yields Rise After Trump Rejects Iran Peace Deal

Stock futures were lower on Monday as oil prices and bond yields once

again rose after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's seven-day peace deal.

Peace negotiators are now pressing Iran to make a concession on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the U.S.

"The result is a familiar but uncomfortable macro mix: higher energy prices, higher yields, a firmer Dollar and weaker risk appetite," Tickmill Group said.

MUFG said that continued disagreement over Hormuz and persistent regional attacks should keep the geopolitical risk premium in oil elevated despite recovering Gulf crude flows.

For the week ahead, economic highlights include the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index for August on Wednesday and the September jobs report on Friday.

Stocks to Watch

Meta Platforms slipped around 3% premarket, after recent gains fueled by the popularity of its Muse AI agent.

Oracle shares fell before the bell, extending losses from last week, when cracks emerged in a huge, debt-fueled data-center project in New Mexico.

Watch For:

U.S. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for September

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- The Moves That Backfired on Trump and Drove Interest Rates and Inflation Higher

- How a U.S. diesel export ban would play out, according to Goldman Sachs

- Nvidia Stock Could Get a China Boost-It Has Nothing to Do With Trump-Xi Talks

MARKET WRAPS Forex:

The dollar rose as hopes for U.S.-Iran diplomacy is fading, lifting oil prices and driving investors towards safe-haven assets.

The euro fell but could stabilize against the dollar this week as its recent decline looks somewhat overdone, ING said.

Bitcoin fell.

Bonds:

Treasury yields rose on the day pressured by higher oil prices, trading close to but below recent multiyear highs.

Energy:

Oil prices climbed more than 2%, keeping the geopolitical risk premium elevated.

Metals:

Gold prices dropped as rising oil prices reinforce expectations that the Fed might raise interest rates further next month.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

TotalEnergies Sets Out Growth Plan Until 2035

TotalEnergies laid out its growth objectives to expand energy capacity beyond 2030, supported by billions of dollars in investment each year.

The French energy company said it plans to invest between $14 billion and $17 billion per year between 2027 and 2032. It expects its oil and gas segment to have around 2% to 3% output growth per year between 2030 to 2035, enabled by its portfolio of organic projects.

How Mark Walter Turned a Ho-Hum Insurance Company Into a Risk-Taking Lender

Most of the money flowing through Mark Walter's network of companies traces back to Delaware Life Insurance, a run-of-the-mill insurer he bought 13 years ago and used to acquire the Los Angeles Dodgers and bankroll a financial empire.

Delaware Life mutated once Walter took over: Obscure private-credit deals grew to about 45% of its nearly $42 billion debt investments, compared with 9% in 2014, an analysis by The Wall Street Journal found. Two out of the insurer's three largest investments are to affiliated Walter companies. The other is to a company with business ties to Walter's financial firm Guggenheim Partners.

Solar and Wind Stocks Are Sinking. Blame High Interest Rates.

Add renewable energy to the list of industries-from real estate to utilities-getting punished by high interest rates.

The 10-year Treasury note was yielding 5.2% on Friday, up a full percentage point in just the past seven months. Solar and wind companies are struggling, because they have to pay higher rates to borrow money for their projects.

Treasury Selloff Extends, Stock Futures Slide to Kick Off Jobs Week

U.S. stock futures fell sharply and a selloff in Treasurys intensified in early European trade, as market sentiment wilted at the start of a week that includes crucial releases of U.S. inflation and jobs data.

A fresh rally in oil prices Monday compounded inflation fears and strengthened expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, sending Treasury yields to fresh multiyear highs. Ten-year yields climbed 4.9 basis points to 5.214%, 30-year yields gained 2.2 basis points to 5.518%. Two-year yields also rose to trade around 4.920%. Markets are pricing a more than 70% likelihood that the Fed opts for a quarter-point raise next month.

Oil Prices Rise as U.S.-Iran Talks Face Fresh Hurdles

Oil prices rose Monday as investors assessed fresh obstacles to U.S.-Iran diplomacy and persistent security risks around Middle Eastern energy supplies.

Front-month November Brent crude futures rose 3% to $107.5 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 2.7% to $94.88 a barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen Friday after a volatile week marked by shifting expectations around U.S.-Iran diplomacy and renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Treasury Yields Rise Amid U.S.-Iran Stalemate; German 10-Year Bund Yield Hits Highest Since 2009

U.S. Treasurys rose in early European trade while German 10-year Bund yields hit their highest since 2009 on Monday as yet another setback in efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher.

Peace negotiators are pressing Iran to make a concession on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the U.S. after President Trump rejected Iran's truce proposal.

Six Investing Pros Weigh In on Surging Yields-and How to Trade Them

Trouble in the bond market is forcing investors to anticipate where the economy-and their portfolios-are headed.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note recently surged past 5% to hit fresh 19-year highs. U.S. debt has topped a record $40 trillion. War with Iran is pushing oil prices higher. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep raising interest rates to tame inflation, suggesting mortgage and other borrowing costs won't meaningfully ease soon.

U.S. Says No Plans to Sell Weapons to China After Perdue Comments

Trump administration officials said the U.S. has no plans to sell weapons to Beijing after Ambassador David Perdue told an interviewer that the president "at one point" offered to make a deal to transfer American arms to Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

During a Sunday discussion about weapons sales to Taiwan, the ambassador to China told Fox News that "President Trump continues to say: hey, we sell arms to other people around the world" then added "he actually asked President Xi would he like to buy some at one point."

In the World's Tuna Capital, Fishermen Are Being Drawn Into a Deadly Drug War

MANTA, Ecuador-In a city that calls itself the world capital of tuna, generations have made their living from the Pacific's rich waters. Now, some fishermen are being drawn into a far more lucrative trade: cocaine trafficking, with a single drug run paying $20,000 to $40,000, compared with the roughly $300 a month they can make from fishing.

The shift places fishermen in the crosshairs of a deadly drug war unfolding at sea, even as some maintain they have nothing to do with the cocaine trade.

Defense Firms Are Rushing to Boost Missile Output. It's Coming Too Late.

A Tucson, Ariz., factory run by defense giant RTX is working around the clock to increase production of Tomahawk and other missiles in short supply for U.S. operations against Iran.

Lockheed Martin is adding hundreds of workers in Arkansas to triple its output of much-needed Patriot interceptors. Subcontractors including Boeing, L3Harris and Northrop Grumman have broken ground on new assembly lines to meet soaring demand for electronics, rocket motors and other components needed for the weapons.

Write to nina.kienle@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA Earnings:

Sangoma Tech 4Q

Economic Indicators (ET):

Nothing major scheduled.

Stocks to Watch:

Fitch Ratings Updates Non-Bank Financial Institutions Criteria; No Rating Impact

Expected Major Events for Monday 08:00/ITA: Aug Foreign Trade non-EU

14:30/US: Sep Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

23:01/UK: Sep Shop Price Monitor

23:50/JPN: Sep Provisional Trade Statistics for 1st 10 days of Month

All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.

Expected Earnings for Monday ASA Gold & Precious Metals Ltd (ASA) is expected to report for 3Q.

Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd (EOG.V) is expected to report for 1Q.

IDT Corp - Class B (IDT) is expected to report for 4Q.

Jefferies Financial Group Inc (JEF) is expected to report $1.00 for 3Q.

Natural Alternatives International Inc (NAII) is expected to report for 4Q.

NetSol Technologies Inc (NTWK) is expected to report for 4Q.

Palatin Technologies Inc (PTN) is expected to report for 4Q.

ReposiTrak Inc (TRAK) is expected to report $0.09 for 4Q.

Trilogy Metals Inc (TMQ,TMQ.T) is expected to report $-0.02 for 3Q.

Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) is expected to report $-5.27 for 4Q.

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ANALYST RATINGS ACTIONS 3M Raised to Market Perform From Underperform by Bernstein

Comcast Cut to Underweight From Sector Weight by Keybanc

First Fincl Bancorp Ohio Raised to Buy From Hold by Truist Securities

Fervo Energy Raised to Outperform From Peer Perform by Wolfe Research

Gulfport Energy Cut to Hold From Buy by Jefferies

Humana Raised to Overweight From Equal-Weight by Barclays

Nike Cut to Underperform From Neutral by B of A Securities

Stem Raised to Buy From Neutral by UBS

Synopsys Raised to Buy From Hold by HSBC

Twilio Cut to Reduce From Hold by HSBC

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 28, 2026 06:14 ET (10:14 GMT)