Wheat Futures Fall on Putin Comments About War — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

--Wheat for December delivery fell 2.8% to $7.52 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Thursday, in response to comments from Russian president Vladimir Putin providing hope for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

--Corn for December delivery fell 0.8% to $5.39 1/4 a bushel.

--Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.3% to $13.14 1/2 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Rebalancing Risk: Comments from Russia's Putin regarding the possibility of a peace deal in the ongoing war with Ukraine sank CBOT wheat futures - although speculation drove this month in lieu of any fundamental change. "That's a long way from an actual pause in attacks and the resumption of full-scale exports, but plenty of war risk premium has been added in three weeks as speculative funds have pushed their corn and soy net positions to estimated records or near-record longs," said Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note.

Sales Streak: Soybeans started the day in negative territory, but turned positive on the USDA's latest flash sales announcement on soybeans to China. The USDA said 192,000 metric tons were sold for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year. It's the third straight day the USDA announced soybean flash sales to China, with 530,000 tons of soybeans sold over that time. This, combined with strong weekly sales reported by the USDA, buoyed soybeans. "Soybeans saw a rush of mid-morning dip buyers due to demand support after facing profit-taking overnight and early in the daytime session," said Brian Grete of Commstock Investments.

INSIGHT

Guessing Game: Private firms are issuing their forecasts for next week's WASDE report. They're saying that the USDA will likely drop its outlook for corn and soybean yields. Linn and Associates sees corn production at 15.768 billion bushels, with a yield of 177.98 bushels an acre, while soybeans are at 4.459 billion bushels with a yield of 52 bpa. Allendale Inc. projects a soybean yield of 52.6 bpa with production at 4.5 billion bushels, while corn yield lands at 178.7 bpa with production at 15.8 billion bushels. These forecasts are below where the USDA pegged production and yields last month, with analysts anticipating weather stress to impact crop numbers.

Not Quite Enough: Gains in CBOT grain futures over the past month have pushed them up through the break-even levels often cited by U.S. farmers - turning planted acres profitable. This has shifted the sentiment of farmers to being more positive, but analysts with the University of Missouri's Food & Agricultural Policy Research Institute report that higher input costs remain a problem for farmer finances. "Crop returns, through a combination of continued soft crop prices and elevated production costs, remain under pressure," said FAPRI in its report.

Whack-A-Mole: The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map shows that dry conditions out west are getting slightly less dire, but instead new dryness is developing in the southern delta states. Drought conditions in western plains states including Nebraska and South Dakota have gone from "extreme" drought to "severe" drought. Meanwhile, in southern delta states including Mississippi, Arkansas, and Alabama, dry conditions are getting worse--with Arkansas in particular blanketed with drought conditions ranging from abnormal dryness and extreme drought.

AHEAD

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA and CBOT will be closed in observance of Labor Day on Monday. Both will reopen on Tuesday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Tuesday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Tuesday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 03, 2026 15:18 ET (19:18 GMT)