Why Trump's Venezuela Oil Grab Is No Quick Fix for Gas Prices — Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is up 0.9% to $96.49 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is down 1% to 72.93 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures are up 0.4% to $14,291 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are up 2.3% to $4,514.40 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

Why Trump's Venezuela Oil Grab Is No Quick Fix for Gas Prices

Last year, Energy Secretary Chris Wright complained that the GOP-led Congress wouldn't give the Trump administration the billions of dollars needed to fill up the U.S.'s oil reserves. President Trump is trying to find a way around reluctant lawmakers.

Trump said Sunday that he plans to use Venezuelan oil that the U.S. will control through a deal with a private company to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The agreement would give Washington access to oil fields said to contain one-fifth of the country's crude reserves.

OTHER STORIES:

Netherlands Moves Gold From New York to London, Citing Geopolitical Unrest

The Dutch central bank said it moved around 86 metric tons of gold from New York and Ottawa to London as a result of "increasing geopolitical unrest."

The relocation from North America to the vaults of the Bank of England was part of its crisis preparedness, De Nederlandsche Bank said.

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GeoPark Joins Venezuela Oil Rush in Deal With Colombia's Grupo Gilinski

Latin America-focused energy company GeoPark has announced its strategic entry into Venezuela, adding to the rush of firms lining up to tap the country's vast oil reserves.

U.S.-listed GeoPark's entry is centered on the Bare Block, a heavy oil asset in Venezuela's petroleum-rich Orinoco belt, and involves terms under which Colombian conglomerate Grupo Gilinski is to set indirectly acquire control of the company.

MARKET TALKS:

European TTF Gas Seen at 80 Euros a Megawatt-Hour by End of 2026 -- Market Talk

1137 GMT - European natural-gas prices are forecast to end this year at 80 euros per megawatt-hour, before falling to 40 euros by the end of 2027 due to constrained LNG supply and low storage levels, according to Capital Economics. TTF prices, Europe's benchmark, currently trade at 73 euros a megawatt-hour. "Warmer-than-usual weather over the northern hemisphere winter could limit heating-related demand and help relieve upward pressure on natural gas and LNG prices in Europe and Asia," says David Oxley, chief commodities economist. "But any increase in attacks on ships using the Strait could feasibly result in flows of crude oil falling back again from current levels and further delay the normalization of energy shipments out of the Middle East." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Brent Crude at Highest in Six Weeks on Fears U.S.-Iran War Could Drag Into 2027 -- Market Talk

1127 GMT - Brent crude futures rise to their highest level in six weeks as concerns over prolonged disruptions to Middle East flows keep the geopolitical risk premium high. In afternoon European trading, the global oil benchmark is up 1% to $96.62 a barrel after having topped $97, while WTI rises 1.6% to $92.44 a barrel. Both benchmarks are up more than 10% on the week following fresh strikes between the U.S. and Iran. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is quietly extending troop deployments in the Middle East, signaling the conflict with Iran could drag into next year. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Brent Forecast at $100 a Barrel by Year-End, Capital Economics Says

1107 GMT - Brent crude is forecast to end the year at $100 a barrel, before falling back to $70 a barrel by the end of 2027, as the recovery in Middle East energy flows is now expected to be delayed, according to Capital Economics. Rather than returning to prewar levels during the second half, the current assumption is that the existing status quo will persist through the remainder of the year, with energy flows only normalizing in early 2027. This outlook implies further draws on global oil inventories over the coming months, although the pace of inventory declines is expected to slow compared with earlier in 2026, says David Oxley, chief commodities economist. Brent currently trades at $97 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Palm Oil Prices End Lower Amid Risk-Off Tone in Asian Markets -- Market Talk

1020 GMT - Palm oil prices ended lower amid a broader risk-off tone in Asian markets, as rising crude oil prices stoked inflation concerns and expectations for tighter monetary policy, says Kenanga Futures analysts in a note. Upcoming U.S. employment data would provide further clues on the interest-rate outlook, they say. Meanwhile, the rebound in U.S. stocks and continued bargain hunting may help limit further downside in the broader Malaysian market, they add. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery ended MYR56 lower at MYR4,902 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

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Venezuela Crude Production Seen Recovering Slowly Despite Investment -- Market Talk

0815 GMT - Venezuela crude oil production isn't expected to return to pre-2018 levels of above 2 million barrels a day over the next few years, despite renewed interest from U.S. and European oil companies, Goldman Sachs says. Production stood at around 1.1 million barrels a day in July, while crude and condensate exports have risen 400,000 barrels a day year-on-year, with the U.S. overtaking China as the largest buyer. Chevron and Eni are among the companies expected to expand operations, supporting a gradual increase in output. However, significant infrastructure damage and an unreliable power grid remain major constraints, making a rapid recovery difficult and costly, analysts at the U.S. bank say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Persian Gulf Oil Flows Higher Than Visible Data Suggest -- Market Talk

0811 GMT - Persian Gulf oil flows appear higher than visible data suggest, although exports remain well below pre-war levels, according to Goldman Sachs. Accounting for "dark" tanker crossings, total Gulf exports are estimated at 15 million-16 million barrels a day, around two-thirds of pre-war levels, compared with visible flows of about 10 million barrels a day. The upward revision over the past two weeks appears to reflect more tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz with tracking system signals switched off, analysts at the bank say. However, Red Sea flows have fallen by 4.5 million barrels a day in August as Saudi Arabia redirected shipments from Yanbu to eastern ports amid Houthi-related security concerns, Goldman data shows. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Copper Holds Above $14,200 on Persistent Supply Concerns -- Market Talk

0757 GMT - Copper prices are flat in early European trading, but still above the $14,200-a-metric-ton mark as persistent supply issues continue to provide support. Renewed attacks between the U.S. and Iran raised concerns that high energy prices could hit economic activity and metals demand. However, copper supply remains tight, with the latest export ban from Congo adding to weaker production in Chile and Peru and El Nino-related disruptions, according to analysts at ANZ. Tight concentrate availability is also squeezing refiners, with China's refined copper output falling 3% year-on-year to 1.1 million tons in June, the Australian firm says. Meanwhile, tariff uncertainty continues to distort global copper flows, encouraging metal into the U.S. and pushing Comex inventories to record highs. Three-month futures on the LME are flat at $14,229 a ton. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Gold Supported by Softer Dollar After U.S. Jobs Data -- Market Talk

0749 GMT - Gold prices rise more than 1% as the ​dollar weakened after U.S. private payrolls data pointed to slower job growth in August. Investors are now focused on interest-rate expectations, oil prices and bond yields worldwide. "While the market is pricing a more than 60% probability of a September rate hike, the question remains whether the Fed will tighten that close to the November midterm elections," analysts at Saxo Bank say. "For now, gold's inverse correlation with oil prices and bond yields remains a key focus, sidelining other potentially supportive drivers," they say. In early European trading, futures are up 1.3% at $4,472.20 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Oil Prices Slip Despite Rising Risks From Prolonged U.S.-Iran War

0729 GMT - Oil prices fall in early European trading despite concerns that the U.S.-Iran war could drag for much longer following renewed military strikes between the two sides this week. Brent crude futures fall 0.7% to $94.91 a barrel, while WTI is down 0.7% to $90.37 a barrel. Both benchmarks settled higher in the previous trading session, with Brent climbing above $95. "Shipping markets now price a 'no-Mideast-deal' status quo for longer," analysts at Goldman Sachs say. "However, increasing market adaptability to the conflict, including a rise in dark transits and the price sensitivity of China crude imports, will likely continue to moderate the upside to crude prices, even in the case of prolonged disruptions in the Middle East." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Iron Ore Flat; Supply-Demand Dynamics Largely Unchanged -- Market Talk

0235 GMT - Iron ore is flat in early Asian trading. The supply-demand dynamics for iron ore remain largely unchanged, according to Baocheng Futures in a research note. Subdued demand continues to weigh on prices, they say. That said, elevated ocean freight costs and preholiday restocking expectations offer some resistance to downward moves, they say. The most-traded iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is flat at 717 yuan a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

Write to Barcelona Editors at barcelonaeditors@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 03, 2026 09:01 ET (13:01 GMT)