Wheat Futures Drop as Traders Pull Back — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

-Wheat for December delivery fell 1% to $7.74 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday, with a pause in the rally in grains futures ahead of next week's WASDE report from the USDA.

-Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.7% to $13.08 3/4 a bushel.

-Corn for December delivery fell 0.6% to $5.42 1/2 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Taking a Breather: Pressure hit CBOT grain futures overnight. The pullback is expected to be temporary, said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. "All are overbought on daily charts," said Blohm, adding that the market still has potential to rise further. Even with Wednesday's lower close, grains remain at multi-year highs.

Following the Leader: Escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran pushed crude prices higher, giving grain futures a boost, particularly corn. Corn is used as the main feedstock for ethanol in the U.S. which is blended into motor vehicle fuel. EIA data shows current ethanol stocks at 25.04 million barrels--11% more than this time last year, while average ethanol output is up 3.3% from the prior year and up nearly 10% from the five-year average. The influence of higher oil prices faded later in the day.

Setting the Stage: Grain traders are taking cues from the estimates on U.S. crop size coming from private analysts ahead of next week's WASDE report. Corn has the most riding on what analysts project ahead of the monthly USDA release, as corn is typically more mature than soybeans at this time of year. "The market is expecting StoneX's updated U.S. corn and soybean crop estimates this afternoon, followed by [AgResource] reportedly Thursday or Friday and S&P Global Energy on Friday," said Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull Trading. "The succession of estimates could determine whether the recent rally has moved too far."

INSIGHT

Widespread Heat: Maturing crops in the Plains and Midwest are seeing depleting soil moisture this week, with high temperatures crossing 100°F and pushing crops towards being harvest-ready faster. The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-average temperatures across the U.S. Corn Belt over the next 6-10 days, only slightly moderating through the next 14 days. The grain market is closely watching to see how much hot weather has impacted the health of crops, with last month's Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour revealing that heat stress hurt crops and reporting lower output forecasts versus the same time the prior year.

Lagging Behind: With no signs of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine slowing down, the amount of wheat leaving Russia for the 2026/27 marketing year is well behind where it was at this time last year, according to data from SovEcon. For the first three months of the country's wheat marketing year, SovEcon said that 5.6 million metric tons of wheat will have been exported. That's down from 11.3 million tons for the same time period last year--a 50% drop-off. "The weak pace reflects continued disruptions in the Azov-Black Sea basin," explained SovEcon in a note.

Another Day, Another Sale: The USDA once again confirmed a new flash sale of U.S. soybean exports to China. The USDA said that 202,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year. That's on top of 136,000 tons reported sold to China on Tuesday, building momentum for trader hopes of strong export sales demand for U.S. crops.

AHEAD

-The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

-The Campbell's Co. will release its fourth quarterly earnings report at 7:15 a.m. ET Thursday.

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 02, 2026 15:21 ET (19:21 GMT)