Wheat Futures Rise as Attacks on Russian Ports Slow Exports — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

-Wheat for December delivery rose 2.2% to $6.96 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday, as damage to major Russian ports snarls the flow of wheat out of the Black Sea.

-Corn for December delivery rose 2.1% to $4.98 1/4 bushel.

-Soybeans for November delivery rose 1.6% to 12.36 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Terminal Tie-Up: Russian wheat exports for August are expected to be at their lowest since 2010, according to data from SovEcon. Exports of 2.2 million metric tons would be well off from 4.5 million tons at this time last year and less than half of the five-year average. The impact of elevated fighting in the Russia-Ukraine war on Russian ports is behind this month's cut, said SovEcon. "All grain terminals in Novorossiysk remain closed for vessel loading, while Taman also remains shut," said the firm. "Several more bulk carriers have been hit by drones in recent days, and freight availability remains severely constrained."

Less Than Optimal: Pro Farmer released the results of its surveys of Nebraska and Indiana from Tuesday's Midwest Crop Tour, which gave CBOT futures support as Pro Farmer's estimates were well off from the previous year. Indiana's corn yield was 183.5 bushels an acre, down 5.3% from last year. Nebraska's corn yield fell by 8.8% from last year, to 163.6 bpa. Pro Farmer doesn't compute yield figures from its survey of soybeans, but it collects pod counts year to year. Counts for both states were down from last year, and in Nebraska's case, nearly 10%.

INSIGHT

Increasing Inventories: Stocks of ethanol in the U.S. grew over the past week, breaking above the 25-million-barrel mark for the first time since May, according to EIA data. Ethanol inventories for the week ended Aug. 14 totaled 25.12 million barrels, up 323,000 barrels from the prior week. The total landed slightly above where analysts surveyed by Dow Jones anticipated this week, with estimates ranging from 24.65 million barrels to 25 million barrels. Average daily production for the week was 1.089 million barrels a day, down 28,000 barrels a day from the previous week. It lands below analyst forecasts for the week, with analysts expecting production to be anywhere from 1.1 million barrels a day to 1.127 million barrels a day.

Winter is Coming: Traders of agricultural commodities are bracing for what could be an historic weather event in the winter months this year, based on estimates from the NOAA that give a 90% probability of a so-called "Super El Niño" taking place from September through January 2027. "With the intensifying El Niño towards a very strong event, this increases the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and driving significant shifts in rainfall patterns that could pose significant risk to agricultural commodities," said analysts with Citi Research in a note.

Return Trip: Phosphate-based fertilizers coming from Morocco are arriving to the U.S. after being subject to countervailing duties by the Trump Administration, with the first shipment arriving this week, according to a story from Politico. They were first targeted for countervailing duties in late 2020, but since then ag economics have been under duress amid supply chain concerns stemming from geopolitical instability. Growers hope that this allows for fertilizer prices to rapidly cool off and eases the burden on farmers' budgets for the 2027 growing season.

AHEAD

-The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour concludes in Rochester, Minn., on Thursday.

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

-The USDA will release its monthly Livestock Slaughter report at 3 p.m. ET Thursday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 19, 2026 15:13 ET (19:13 GMT)