EMEA Morning Briefing: Soft U.S. Inflation Prints Lift Markets

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Eurozone GDP, trade; trading update for Aviva

Opening Call:

European stock futures were higher after Asia stocks traded mixed. The yield on U.S. Treasurys were flat, the dollar weakened. Gold fell and oil rose.

Equities:

European equity futures rose, as two straight days of soft inflation data out of the U.S. lifted the S&P 500 index to an all-time high.

Between the war in Iran's impact on energy prices and a new Fed chair who Wall Street suspects is more hawkish than his predecessor, inflation and high interest rates had re-emerged as investors' top concerns.

"Shifting expectations for Fed policy may contribute to periods of equity volatility, but we expect the global stock rally to continue," said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, global head of equities at the UBS Chief Investment Office.

Forex:

The U.S. dollar weakened amid mixed developments.

"Softer-than-expected U.S. PPI saw Fed hike expectations pared further and Treasury yields eased," said strategists at OCBC.

However, the greenback showed "little follow-through to the downside," they said, adding, "geopolitical uncertainty may be partly tempering appetite to chase the USD lower."

Bonds:

The yield on U.S. Treasurys were flat. Traders are now pricing in a two-thirds chance the Fed will hold benchmark rates steady at its meeting next month.

"The 10-year yield has remained uncomfortably high," said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial.

While that's good for bond buyers, stock investors would prefer they keep drifting lower, he added.

Energy:

Oil prices rose amid mixed signals. On one hand, there are signs of oil flows rising, ANZ Research analysts said.

"Persian Gulf producers such as the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia are said to be doing what they can to keep exports flowing, including switching transponders to move cargo through the Strait [of Hormuz] without detection," the analysts said.

On other hand, "reports emerged that the Iranian-backed Houthi militant group had targeted Saudi Aramco's oil refinery in Jazan on the Red Sea Coast," the analysts add.

Metals:

Gold prices were lower, as the yellow metal struggled to extend its rebound despite softer-than-expected U.S. producer-price index data, which suggests the next leg higher for gold prices might not be straightforward, said OCBC.

"Near-term consolidation or a moderate pullback cannot be ruled out unless softer data translate into lower yields/USD and firmer investment flows," it said.

A high interest-rate backdrop typically weighs on nonyielding gold, while a stronger dollar usually makes the dollar-denominated precious metal more expensive for holders of non-dollar currencies.

Aluminum fell in early trade. However, prices are likely to remain supported by signs of supply tightness in the aluminum market, ANZ Research said.

The LME aluminum warehouse stockpiles are at their lowest level since 1990.

ANZ added that U.A.E. aluminum producer, Emirates Global Aluminium, aims to raise its output to pre-war levels in 1Q 2027--this comes after its main smelter was hit by Iranian missiles in March.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Ukraine War Disrupts Grain Exports, Putting Food Stocks in Focus

The war in Ukraine is again threatening to spill directly into global food markets.

A major Ukrainian attack on Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk forced two large grain terminals to halt operations Wednesday. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, and Novorossiysk is one of its most important outlets to global buyers.

U.S. Sending Fresh Aircraft Carrier to Middle East Amid Iran War Strain

The U.S. military is preparing to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln with the USS George Washington as part of a scheduled Middle East deployment, U.S. officials said, amid growing concerns over living conditions aboard the Lincoln and the strain on troops during the Iran war.

Several lawmakers say they are concerned about reports of a lack of food and personal supplies aboard the carrier, as well as plumbing backups, as the carrier's deployment stretches into its ninth month.

Applied Materials Eyes Capacity Expansion as Profit, Revenue Grow

Applied Materials is looking to ramp up its manufacturing capacity to meet continued semiconductor solutions demand as the company's profit and revenue grow.

The semiconductor-equipment maker is responding to long-term demand signals by adding new manufacturing and customer support teams, Chief Financial Officer Brice Hill told analysts on a Thursday call. The company hopes to build capacity to double quarterly semiconductor system output from its current level by 2028, he said.

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Expected Major Events for Friday 05:00/FIN: Jul CPI

06:00/GER: Jul WPI

06:00/ROM: 2Q Evolution of GDP (estimated data)

06:45/FRA: Jul CPI

07:00/SVK: 2Q Flash estimate of GDP

07:00/SVK: 2Q Flash estimate of total employment

07:00/SPN: Jun Industrial Orders & Turnover

08:00/BUL: 2Q Flash Estimate GDP

08:00/BUL: 2Q Labour force survey

09:00/CYP: 2Q GDP (Flash Estimate)

09:00/EU: 2Q Flash Estimate GDP

09:00/EU: 2Q Flash estimate employment EU and euro area

09:00/CRO: Jul CPI

09:00/EU: Jun Foreign trade

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 14, 2026 00:15 ET (04:15 GMT)