AI's Biggest Energy Impact Might Be in the Oil Patch, Not the Data Center — Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is down 2.1% to $87.14 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is down 1.2% to 60.28 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures are up 0.1% to $14,125 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are down 0.8% to $4,430 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

AI's Biggest Energy Impact Might Be in the Oil Patch, Not the Data Center

AI data centers guzzle as much electricity as entire cities. They have ignited demand for any energy source you can name. They're straining the grid and making people fret about their utility bills.

Yet all that gargantuan power consumption is a sideshow.

That's the conclusion of a new paper that seeks to quantify how artificial intelligence will change the energy system. It says the most profound impact won't come from how the technology is powered but what it's used for. Its big prediction: AI is on course to extend the dominance of fossil fuels.

OTHER STORIES:

Orsted Says All Projects on Schedule After Impairments Hit Profit

Orsted reported lower second-quarter profit, hit by write-downs, but said all projects are on schedule and within planned costs.

The Danish renewable-energy company said Thursday that quarterly net profit sank to 518 million Danish kroner ($79.9 million) from 3.10 billion kroner previously. Higher taxes and noncash impairment charges this year due to increases in long-dated U.S. interest rates, as well as last year's gains on asset sales, caused the drop.

MARKET TALKS:

Lost Diesel Demand Too Little to Address Supply Squeeze -- Market Talk

1016 ET - Curbs on diesel demand in some regions due to high prices probably won't be enough to rebalance the market given global supply shortages as the market enters the strongest seasonal demand period, Francisco Blanch of Bank of America Global Research says in a note. "Harvest-related demand growth, low inventories, and ongoing supply outages may outweigh early signs of demand destruction," the commodity strategist says. "Absent a meaningful supply recovery, the diesel market appears poised to stay tight, volatile, and expensive well into next year." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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U.S. Natural Gas Futures Fall Ahead of Storage Data

0935 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower ahead of the EIA's weekly inventory report due at 10:30 a.m. ET. Analysts in a WSJ survey expect a 30 Bcf storage injection, slightly smaller than the 33 Bcf five-year average. That would trim the inventory surplus over the five-year average to 192 Bcf from 195 Bcf the previous week. "Without a bullish EIA print or continued warm weather, ebbing momentum could limit short-term upside," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Nymex natural gas is down 2.4% at $2.737/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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Crude Futures Pull Back After Days of Gains -- Market Talk

0921 ET - Oil futures are lower after posting a string of gains, with the U.S. and Iran both claiming to have control over the Strait of Hormuz and still limited shipping through the waterway. The retreat is likely a technical correction, but could also be partly a delayed reaction to yesterday's EIA report of a 17.4 million barrel U.S. commercial crude inventory build, Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. Although the stock build was likely a one-off to be followed by draws in coming weeks, the big reduction in the deficit "cannot be dismissed," the firm adds. WTI is down 2.6% at $81.12 a barrel and Brent is down 2.3% at $86.97. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

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European Gas Market Faces Supply Pressures But U.S. Cargoes Might Ease Some Concerns

1057 GMT - European gas markets are facing renewed supply pressures as geopolitical tensions and infrastructure disruptions push prices higher. The Netherlands-based TTF September contract trades just shy of 60 euros a megawatt-hour and is headed for a weekly gain of 6%. "European and Asian gas markets find themselves in the high-priced part of yet another hope-disillusionment cycle of Middle East negotiation attempts," says Jan-Eric Fahnrich from Rystad Energy. Uncertainty surrounding negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz is adding volatility, while storage levels lag behind last year, with EU facilities 59% full. However, Europe may attract additional U.S. LNG cargoes from October, alongside diverted shipments from Egypt, which could ease some supply concerns, according to Fahnrich. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Palm Oil Rises on Expectations of Higher Demand -- Market Talk

1023 GMT - Palm oil rises during Asian trading, supported by expectations of strong demand from major buyer India ahead of the festive season, Kenanga Futures says in a note. Higher tropical-oil inventories and uncertainty over U.S.-Iran peace negotiations may be capping further gains, it adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery rose 27 ringgit to 4,724 ringgit a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

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Oil Falls Amid Weaker Demand Outlook, Stalled Hormuz Talks -- Market Talk

0801 GMT - Oil prices fall as investors assess a weaker demand outlook and continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, though talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled. In early European trading, Brent crude is down 1.5% to $87.62 a barrel, while WTI futures decline 1.6% to $81.96 a barrel. The IEA estimates a deficit of 1.8 million barrels a day in the third quarter as higher fuel prices weigh on consumption, while OPEC also cut its demand-growth forecast. "Going forward, progress on restoring Hormuz traffic remains the key catalyst for prices, while tight global balances should keep oil supported despite signs that higher prices are beginning to weigh on demand," says Soojin Kim from MUFG.(giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Gold Eases After Wednesday's Climb, With U.S. Inflation Data in Focus -- Market Talk

0753 GMT - Gold prices ease in early European trading after rising in the previous session, as U.S. inflation data came in line with expectations, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold in September. New York futures are down 0.8% to $4,433.80 a troy ounce, though they remain 3% higher on the week. "U.S. consumer prices increased just 0.1% month-on-month in July, suggesting that inflationary pressure from the earlier energy-price shock is moderating, while recent weakness in the labour market has further reduced the case for immediate tightening," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. Traders now await the Fed's upcoming PPI data for further clues on the rate outlook. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

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Gold Expected to Continue Playing Long-Term Hedging Role -- Market Talk

0700 GMT - Gold is likely to continue serving as a potential hedge against currency weakness and the risks associated with persistently high government debt and fiscal deficits, says T. Rowe Price. "With debt and deficits unlikely to decline meaningfully and potentially increasing as a result of additional war-related spending, we continue to believe that gold can play a valuable long-term hedging role," says Rick de los Reyes, head of commodities at T. Rowe Price. Gold's earlier weakness appears more closely related to concerns over higher real interest rates than to a deterioration in the longer-term investment case, he says in a note. Higher real rates are generally associated with lower gold prices, while falling real rates are typically supportive of gold. Spot gold is down 0.6% at $4,380.31 an ounce, according to LSEG. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

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Iron Ore Prices Flat on Steady Fundamentals -- Market Talk

0302 GMT - Iron ore prices are flat in early Asia trade. End-user consumption is recovering from low levels, but weak steelmaker profitability is limiting the scope for a meaningful improvement in ore demand, Baocheng Futures analysts write in a note. On the supply side, port arrivals fell temporarily due to typhoon-related disruptions, but miners' shipments remain elevated, suggesting arrivals are likely to recover, the analysts say. Overseas supply remains ample, although domestic mine output is weakening, they add. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is flat at 705.50 yuan a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

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Gold Gains on Reduced Fed Rate Hike Expectations -- Market Talk

0029 GMT - Gold rises in early Asian trade. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike were pared back following the U.S. inflation data, as July consumer prices rose only marginally from June, say ANZ Research analysts in a note. The data suggests that the Fed is likely to remain on hold at its next meeting, leaving the market pricing only a 40% chance of a rate hike, the analysts say. "This continues the steady stream of data that have tempered expectations of monetary tightening and should provide further support for gold in the coming months," they add. A higher interest rate environment usually weighs on non-interest yielding assets such as the yellow metal. Spot gold is up 0.5% at $4,433.11 an ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

Write to Barcelona Editors at barcelonaeditors@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 13, 2026 11:26 ET (15:26 GMT)

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