Corn Futures Drop on Higher Brazilian Output — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

-Corn for December delivery fell 1.8% to $4.72 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, after Brazil's crop agency adjusted its outlook for 2026 corn production higher.

-Soybeans for November delivery were virtually unchanged at $11.83 a bushel.

-Wheat for December delivery fell 0.2% to $6.68 1/2 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Stiff Competition: Brazilian crop agency Conab projects Brazilian corn at 143 million metric tons. That's up from the previous year, while soybean production totaled 180 million tons, down slightly from last year. Versus USDA projections issued in its WASDE report Wednesday, Conab's corn forecast is roughly 3 million tons higher. "Brazil's Conab delivered a noticeably more bearish corn update than soybean update Thursday," said Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull in a note. According to Wiesemeyer, improvements seen in the safrinha corn crop supported the higher corn figure. "The Brazilian government's own field-based estimate being nearly 3 MMT above USDA will be difficult for the market to ignore," said Wiesemeyer.

Light Volume: Export sales of U.S. corn and wheat fell on the low side of analyst forecasts for the week, the USDA said Thursday. In its latest weekly export sales report, the USDA said corn sales across the 2025/26 and 2026/27 marketing years totaled 1.34 million metric tons, while wheat sales for 2026/27 were 255,900 tons. Both of these totals are on the low side of forecasts from analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this week. For corn, analysts had forecast sales as high as 1.9 million tons, while for wheat sales were expected to be as high as 700,000 tons. Soybean sales landed in the middle of analyst forecasts, totaling 1.84 million tons across 2025/26 and 2026/27.

INSIGHT

Deal or No Deal: Russian news agency Interfax is reporting that the country has not received any formalized moratorium regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict - this despite a call from Turkey's foreign minister for the two sides to agree to a temporary pause in the bombing. News of no resolution to the conflict on the horizon could mean that Russian and Ukrainian ports could continue to suffer damage from drone strikes and other military actions, limiting the amount of grain exports that can travel through sea shipping channels.

Logistical Challenges: Fertilizer prices remain high amid the logistical issues introduced by the U.S.-Iran war and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed fertilizer prices back up to levels comparable to the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war. The elevated prices are expected to stay in place next year, and even as far out as 2028, said agricultural lender CoBank in a note. "Although prices have retreated from the historic highs seen at the start of the war, elevated fertilizer expenses remain a major headwind for the U.S. agricultural sector," said the firm.

Barrelling Into the Winter: The ongoing El Niño climate system is getting stronger, with the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center assessing "a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27," in its latest update. An El Niño system generally means that the winter conditions will be warmer than normal--which may be beneficial for farmers that are proceeding to harvest their fields. If El Niño does end up being as strong as predicted, then it may be the most radical El Niño since at least 1950, said the Climate Prediction Center.

AHEAD

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday

-The first day of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour begins Monday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 13, 2026 15:18 ET (19:18 GMT)