EIA Raises Oil-Price Forecasts on Renewed Strait of Hormuz Constraints

By Anthony Harrup

The U.S. Energy Information Administration lifted its oil-price estimates for this year as renewed attacks on shipping impose severe restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping more regional production shut in during the coming months.

In its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA on Tuesday raised its 2026 Brent price estimate to $87 a barrel from $82 a barrel in its July forecast. The agency expects West Texas Intermediate crude to average $81 a barrel this year, compared with $76 previously.

The EIA estimated shut-in production at 5.5 million barrels a day for July, and expects that to increase in August as shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz remain through the rest of this month. It expects flows to slowly increase in September.

"If these assumptions hold, we expect it will take until early 2027 for production and trade patterns to generally return to pre-conflict status," the EIA said. But it still expects some 600,000 barrels a day to remain shut in through the end of next year.

The agency estimated global inventory withdrawals at 4.2 million barrels a day on average in the second quarter, and sees drawdowns of 3.8 million barrels a day in the third quarter. It expects inventories to start rebuilding in the first quarter of next year, lowering the average Brent price in 2027 to $69 a barrel and WTI to $65 a barrel.

Commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S. are expected to be under their five-year low through the rest of this year as a result of high refinery use and lower net imports. Net imports fell below 1 million barrels a day in April and May as U.S. crude exports surged to record levels, the EIA noted.

"We forecast net imports of crude oil to be remain below average through the end of our forecast because of relatively high international demand for U.S. crude oil exports and lower U.S. imports, keeping inventories low," the EIA said.

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 11, 2026 14:17 ET (18:17 GMT)