Wheat Futures Retreat Despite Limited Black Sea Trade — Daily Grain Highlights

By Anthony Harrup

--Wheat for September delivery fell 1.7% to $6.31 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Thursday, reversing the previous session's gains despite continuing limits on Black Sea exports.

--Corn for December delivery rose 0.4% to $4.62 a bushel.

--Soybeans for November delivery settled up 0.3% at $11.77 3/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Export sales: The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported lower corn and soybean export sales for the week ended July 30, while wheat sales were modestly higher. Corn sales fell to 1.14 million metric tons from 1.43 million tons the week before, soybean sales were 936,100 tons, down from 1.64 million tons, and wheat sales edged up to 296,400 tons from 285,200 tons.

Unexpected drop: Losses in wheat futures were not expected given limits on Black Sea exports due to fighting between Russia and Ukraine, AgResource said in a note. "The issue is that the U.S. is not seeing any additional export demand due to the war-reduced Black Sea grain trade," the firm said. "End users are only now sorting out other suppliers and securing grain on an optional origin basis."

Support for soybeans: The USDA reported a new flash sale of 122,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year. China's continuing purchases and the EPA's higher renewable fuel blending targets are supportive of soybeans, Cory Bratland of AgMarket.net said in a note. "If China remains active buying soybeans, I question how much soybeans will be able to sell off," he said. "With exports picking up and the new RVO obligations, demand for U.S. soybeans should remain very strong."

INSIGHT

Bullish for wheat: A number of bullish factors are in play for wheat futures in addition to the fighting between Russia and Ukraine, Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives said in a note. "With most of the northern hemisphere harvest behind us, a short crop in the U.S., a short crop in the EU, El Niño concerns for Australia, exports restricted out of Russia/Ukraine, and reduced fertilizer available out of the Middle East during the growing season, there is reason to be optimistic for wheat prices," he said.

More Corn to EU: Declining expectations for the European Union's corn crop due to heat and drought should increase EU import demand, adding support to U.S. exports in the year ahead, Mike Castle of StoneX said in a note. The USDA lowered its estimate for EU corn production to 53.78 million metric tons in July, he noted, "but we would expect to see them continuing to move that estimate lower on next week's report, and potentially more in the months ahead depending on how aggressive they get on the August WASDE."

Overly optimistic: Grain markets continue to underestimate the risk to Black Sea grain exports as fighting continues between Russia and Ukraine, grains consultancy SovEcon said in a note. "Simultaneous pressure on Russian and Ukrainian shipments, combined with the vulnerability of alternative routes, should support global grain prices," the firm said. SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports in July at 1.6 million metric tons, the lowest for the month since the 2017/18 season.

AHEAD

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 06, 2026 15:15 ET (19:15 GMT)