North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Up, Oil Edges Higher as Iran War Uncertainty Remains

Stock futures were up Wednesday as AI enthusiasm returned and uncertainty

over an Iran peace deal continued.

The Nasdaq has led the latest rally, surging 8.8% over just the last four trading days.

"Global equities have pushed to fresh records as AI enthusiasm returns, oil risk fades and traders trim expectations for further rate hikes," Tickmill Group said. "The recovery is being led by semiconductors."

Oil prices are edging up as Mideast mediators are working on a temporary fix for the Strait of Hormuz.

"There is still clearly a wide gap between the U.S. and Iran when it comes to management of the Strait of Hormuz, and, of course, the nuclear issue," ING said. "There is the very real risk that any deal unravels fairly quickly, as we saw with the memorandum of understanding."

For the day ahead, the flow of jobs data continues with July's U.S. ADP employment report. Foreign exchange traders will remain on yen intervention watch, after Bessent said the U.S. would do "whatever it takes" to support Japan.

Meanwhile, major earnings releases include drug maker Eli Lilly and Walt Disney.

Stocks to watch

Advanced Micro Devices tumbled premarket following Musk's comments that SpaceX would no longer buy AMD chips.

Arista Networks jumped premarket after it reported higher profit in its second quarter and gave a third-quarter outlook that beat analyst expectations.

Pinterest swung to a quarterly loss as higher costs, including a restructuring charge, weighed on its bottom line. The stock slumped more than 8% in premarket trading.

Space Exploration Technologies said its capital expenditures hit $18.4 billion in its most recent quarter. Shares fell 9% in premarket trading.

Walt Disney, Eli Lilly, Uber, CVS: The companies are among a slew of major names set to release earnings this morning. Western Digital, Sandisk and eBay will report after markets close.

Watch For:

U.S. ADP National Employment Report for July; U.S. ISM Report on Business Services PMI for July; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; CVS Health 2Q earnings; Kraft Heinz 2Q earnings; Uber Technologies 2Q earnings; Walt Disney Co. 3Q earnings

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- SpaceX Needs to Make Its Bigger Rockets Work

- AI Just Went Rogue Again. This Time It Turned to Deception.

- The Investing Heavyweights That Backed Situational Awareness Before It Blew Up

MARKET WRAPS Forex:

The dollar traded steady as uncertainty over the Iran war remains elevated. This week's U.S. labor market data are an important driver for rates and the dollar, MUFG Bank said.

The euro gained but ING said drought conditions in Europe could be limiting its gains against the dollar.

Bonds:

Treasury yields extended Tuesday's decline as oil prices retreated further after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may be near.

Energy:

In early European trading, Brent crude rose 1%, while WTI was up 0.3%.

Metals:

Gold prices climbed above $4,200 as signs of diplomatic progress in the Middle East tempered fears over inflation and interest-rate hikes.

Iron ore

Iron ore prices were higher in early trading, supported by concerns over potential supply disruptions after expectations of strike action at BHP's Port Hedland operations, said Everbright Futures.

Copper

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange rose above the $14,000 mark, supported by tightening market conditions.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

SpaceX Needs to Make Its Bigger Rockets Work

SpaceX's stock has fallen hard since the company's IPO in June. But Elon Musk still needs a lot to go right to justify the company's out-of-this-world valuation.

Pretty much all of SpaceX's most promising ambitions hinge on carrying larger payload capacity at lower cost than today's rockets. And that means the company can little afford continued hiccups with Starship, the successor to SpaceX's tried and tested Falcon 9 rockets.

SpaceX Says Spending Spree Is Supercharging AI Revenues

SpaceX has huge ambitions in artificial intelligence. Getting there is requiring equally huge investment.

Elon Musk's space company on Tuesday said its capital expenditures hit $18.4 billion in its most recent quarter. The bulk of that figure-$15.8 billion-is tied to the company's ongoing AI build-out and double the previous quarter's total.

Siemens Energy Orders Reach Record Highs on U.S. Data-Center Demand

A wave of demand for U.S. data centers propelled Siemens Energy's orders to a record high, while profits more than tripled in its fiscal third quarter.

The German maker of energy equipment said it benefited from surging global demand for electricity in the third fiscal quarter, with order intake bolstered by the U.S.

Chip Maker Infineon Forecasts Strong Revenue Growth on Booming AI Demand

Infineon Technologies said it expects strong revenue growth in the current fiscal year as the race to build artificial-intelligence infrastructure keeps adding fuel to red-hot semiconductor demand.

The German chip maker on Wednesday detailed its revenue guidance for the year to the end of September, projecting roughly 16.3 billion euros ($18.80 billion) compared with 14.66 billion euros it reported for fiscal 2025. The company had previously guided for significant revenue growth, but without specifying a figure.

Iran Is Staking Everything on Controlling the Strait of Hormuz

Iran's leadership has made a high-stakes calculation in its showdown with President Trump: maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz is a nonnegotiable red line.

By asserting authority over a critical waterway for global crude-oil flows, Tehran is betting that its ability to inflict pain on the American economy is its best leverage to avoid future military action from the U.S. and Israel. With gasoline prices and inflation elevated, Tehran believes Trump will ultimately accept its terms ahead of fast-approaching midterm elections that could determine the future of his presidency.

Inflation Problem Isn't Only About Energy, Fed's Schmid Says

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve's inflation problem isn't only about energy, and bringing inflation down to the Fed's 2% objective will require tighter policy.

Speaking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Agricultural Economic Summit in Omaha, Neb., Schmid said measures of inflation that exclude energy are still running solidly above 2%, revealing an underlying trend in the data.

India's Central Bank Holds Rates as Iran Crisis Keeps Risks High

India's central bank held rates steady again on Wednesday, saying that the economy remains resilient in the face of pressure stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.

The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee voted unanimously to keep the repo rate at 5.25%, extending its pause to a fourth consecutive meeting.

Iran Is Staking Everything on Controlling the Strait of Hormuz

Iran's leadership has made a high-stakes calculation in its showdown with President Trump: maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz is a nonnegotiable red line.

By asserting authority over a critical waterway for global crude-oil flows, Tehran is betting that its ability to inflict pain on the American economy is its best leverage to avoid future military action from the U.S. and Israel. With gasoline prices and inflation elevated, Tehran believes Trump will ultimately accept its terms ahead of fast-approaching midterm elections that could determine the future of his presidency.

Hormuz Opening Uncertain After New Strike

A new strike hit a ship moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and negotiations to reopen the waterway ran into a dispute over fees, clouding the outlook for the vital energy corridor even as the Trump administration insisted that a deal could be close.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview Tuesday on CNBC that the U.S. and Iran could reach a deal by Wednesday to resolve the dispute in the strait, sending oil prices lower. Later, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that talks to reopen the strait have made progress but hadn't reached a final agreement.

Hegseth's Pick for Top Army Job Is Losing Republican Support

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's pick for Army chief of staff is in jeopardy because of objections from Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst and other Republican senators, according to U.S. officials and congressional sources.

Hegseth has been pushing to nominate Gen. Christopher LaNeve, who has served as acting Army chief of staff since Hegseth in April fired the former Army top officer, retired Gen. Randy George, according to U.S. officials. But without unanimous Republican support, a LaNeve nomination won't advance out of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

FAA Investigates Marine One Safety Incident in Washington

Federal aviation officials are reviewing an air-traffic safety incident Tuesday involving a military helicopter carrying President Trump.

The president's Marine One helicopter took off from the White House Tuesday afternoon, but air-traffic controllers hadn't halted commercial flights at nearby Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport as required under safety protocols, people familiar with the matter said.

Write to priscila.barrera@wsj.com

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August 05, 2026 06:16 ET (10:16 GMT)