Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Jobs Data in -2-

China is in for a busy week, with a series of key data releases, such as trade and inflation.

On Friday, China's trade data will provide fresh insight into the country's widening trade imbalance, which has fueled tensions with major trading partners such as the European Union in recent months.

Economists at ING expect both exports and imports to remain robust, forecasting export growth of 28% and import growth of nearly 34%, resulting in a trade surplus of $112.6 billion.

Technology-related goods will likely continue to drive trade, ING said. Markets will also be watching for signs of a recovery in China's oil imports or further stagnation, as weaker imports have likely helped keep a lid on oil prices since the start of the Middle East earlier this year.

Beijing will also release July inflation data on Sunday, as policymakers continue to grapple with a deflationary environment marked by persistent price wars and weak consumer spending.

The decline in June's CPI compared with May signaled a worrying trend, suggesting China's efforts to stimulate demand may be losing momentum.

Finally, private surveys on China's purchasing manufacturing index, as well as readings for nonmanufacturing activity, will be released throughout the week, after the economy saw weaker-than-expected official prints for July.

Investors will be watching to see whether the private-sector gauges, which includes the manufacturing PMI set for Monday and the services PMI set for Wednesday, will continue to outperform the official data, which came in below market expectations.

Asian PMIs

A string of manufacturing PMI readings for export powerhouses Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, as well as Southeast Asian economies are due Monday. The surveys will be closely watched as manufacturers continue to face cost pressures.

Flash July PMIs showed inflation remained elevated but manufacturing activity was supported largely by strong AI hardware demand, which has been benefiting a narrow range of economies like Taiwan and South Korea. The flash data also showed that manufacturers remained cautious as the outlook for future output remains clouded by persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

India

The Reserve Bank of India will deliver its closely-watched monetary policy decision on Wednesday, as the central bank grapples with inflationary risks against the backdrop of economic uncertainties for growth.

With India's average consumer price index for the April-June period coming in below forecasts, the RBI may be prompted to lower its inflation projection for the current fiscal year, avoiding the need for rate hikes for now, Citi Research analysts said.

However, the odds of the RBI raising rates later in the year are increasing, said ANZ Research's Dhiraj Nim.

The central bank may be waiting to see stronger signs of second-order impact of higher oil prices to consider rate hikes amid heightened uncertainty, Nim said. ANZ expects the first 25-basis-point rate hike to be delivered in December, though it could come sooner if economic conditions deteriorate.

Indonesia

Indonesia's inflation data for July set for Monday is expected to stay modest at 3.32%, ANZ economists said. Administered-price inflation is expected to ease, as lower fuel prices reduce transport costs, ANZ added, noting that a weak rupiah and cost pass-through should keep core inflation firm.

Indonesia's June trade data will also be published on the same day, with the nation's merchandise trade deficit expected to have narrowed modestly, Barclays said. The reading may suggest some improvement in the country's external trade balance despite a challenging global backdrop, it added.

Indonesia's second-quarter economic growth is expected to have remained resilient, supported mainly by domestic demand, Bank Indonesia said in its recent policy meeting.

Government spending, including civil servant bonuses and social assistance, helped underpin consumption, while investment was driven by infrastructure projects under national priority programs, the central bank noted. Barclays expects second-quarter GDP growth to come in at 5.7% on year.

South Korea

South Korea's headline inflation is expected to have eased to below 3% in July due to lower energy prices and electricity tariffs. Data are due Tuesday.

The median forecast in a Wall Street Journal poll of 11 economists is for a 2.9% on-year rise in the benchmark consumer-price index, slowing from the 3.2% increase in June and 3.1% in May.

On a monthly basis, the index likely edged down 0.1% in July, the poll showed.

A decline in retail gasoline prices and a cut in electricity rates are among the deflationary factors, Citigroup economist Jin-Wook Kim said. Still, price increases in restaurants, tourism-related services and core goods continue to fuel inflationary pressures, Kim added.

Taiwan

Taiwan's July inflation, to be published Thursday, likely remained sticky after the headline print rose above the 2% threshold in two consecutive months.

Inflation likely remained elevated at 2.5% for the month, said DBS economists. The rebound in oil prices amid renewed Middle East tensions is expected to keep costs for imported raw materials high, while the severe typhoon in July is also expected to push up fresh food prices, DBS added.

Taiwan is also set to release July exports data on Friday. The island's exports likely continued to be supported by AI infrastructure demand.

Exports likely grew 35.3% compared to a year ago and imports increased 48.7%, resulting in a trade surplus of $13.8 billion, said ANZ's Vicky Xiao Zhou.

Export growth should remain robust, driven by continued AI-related demand and inventory restocking ahead of the second half of the year, ANZ added.

Thailand, Philippines

Inflation data for Thailand and the Philippines, both due Wednesday, are likely to have remained elevated.

The Philippines central bank said price pressures are seen to stem from increases in domestic petroleum pump prices, electricity rates, fish prices as well as the currency's weakening against the greenback.

Lower prices of key commodities such as rice and meat, however, are expected to offset the higher cost pressures, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said.

In Thailand, headline inflation likely accelerated to 3.0% in July from 2.4% in June, said DBS economists. The rise in consumer prices is likely due to firmer food price increases amid low base effects, and higher core inflation due to the pass-through of energy costs, DBS said.

The Philippines will also release second-quarter gross domestic product print on Friday. Growth is likely to remain subdued, as higher oil prices and continued political uncertainty keep investment activity muted, said ING economists.

Government spending should begin to recover after contracting in the second half of 2025, offering some support to domestic demand, ING added. Export growth is also expected to strengthen relative to the first quarter, with the Philippines gaining from a deeper integration into the AI supply chain, ING said.

"However, higher oil and nonoil import prices are likely to weigh on the trade balance, resulting in a smaller net contribution from external demand to overall GDP growth," ING added.

Any references to days are in local times.

Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com

Corrections & Amplifications

This story was corrected on August 3, 2016. In New Zealand, the second-quarter employment report on Wednesday will be the highlight of an otherwise quiet week for the region. The original version misstated the day as Thursday.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 02, 2026 17:14 ET (21:14 GMT)