Big Oil Is Raking In Billions From the Iran War. Can It Avoid Trump's Fury? — Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is down 4.3% to $84.53 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is down 3% at 56.08 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures are down 0.5% at 13,685 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are down 0.8% to $4,044 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

Big Oil Is Raking In Billions From the Iran War. Can It Avoid Trump's Fury?

Back in March, President Trump rejoiced at soaring oil prices, saying: "We make a lot of money." Now, his oil allies are set to collect a windfall, and Trump isn't so happy anymore.

Thanks to U.S. crude prices averaging $95 a barrel between March and June-up from about $66 before the Iran war--ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum are expected to collectively rake in some $31 billion in earnings for the second quarter of the year, according to FactSet estimates. That is up from about $12 billion for the same period last year.

OTHER STORIES:

One Megabuyer--China--Finds a Way to Get Mideast Oil

Wartime disruptions at two shipping chokepoints in the Middle East are sending shock waves through global markets. China has still found a way to get oil from the region.

Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen began last week to attack Saudi-linked oil tankers at the Bab al-Mandeb strait, expanding the Iran conflict and disrupting a crucial Red Sea route that Saudi Arabia has used to bypass the embattled Strait of Hormuz and deliver oil to customers in Asia.

--

Eni to Partner With TotalEnergies on Cyprus Gas Field in Boost for European Energy

Italy's Eni and France's TotalEnergies plan to develop a gas field in Cyprus, proceeding with the offshore project as conflict in the Middle East pushes companies to explore other opportunities.

The companies said Tuesday that they have taken the final investment decision on the deep-water offshore project in the Cronos field. First gas is expected in 2028.

--

Air Liquide Backs Guidance After Revenue, Margin Improvements

Air Liquide backed its guidance after first-half revenue rose and its margin improved.

The French industrial-gases company said Tuesday that revenue for the first half of 2026 rose 0.8% from the same period a year prior to 13.83 billion euros, equivalent to $15.71 billion. Revenue rose 4.3% excluding currency and energy impacts, and 2.6% on a comparable basis.

--

QatarEnergy Extends LNG Force Majeure Into September, Italy's Edison Says

QatarEnergy extended force majeure on liquefied natural gas shipments for Edison--one of its largest European customers--through the end of September, the Italian utility said Tuesday.

The state-owned company notified Edison that it wouldn't be able to deliver three additional cargoes scheduled for Italy's Adriatic LNG import terminal. The force majeure clause allows suppliers to suspend contractual obligations without penalty due to events beyond their control.

--

Australia to Explore Building First New Oil Refinery in Decades

Australia will explore building a new oil refinery to help shore up fuel supply, in what could become the country's first new large-scale oil-processing plant in decades.

The federal government and Western Australia state government will jointly fund a four-million-Australian dollar, equivalent to US$2.8 million, study for a new refinery in Karratha in the state's north, officials said Tuesday.

MARKET TALKS:

Cattle Attempts to Rally -- Market Talk

1022 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME are up 0.5%, seemingly bouncing back after a streak of selling of the most-active contract. But livestock traders are not sure the rally can last. "The downtrend may continue and rallies are likely to be selling opportunities," says the Hightower Report in a note. Because of the measured way that the USDA plans to reopen the U.S.-Mexico border to fed cattle imports from Mexico, the impact of that on prices has likely softened as a flood of imports is not expected at once. Lean hogs are up 0.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

--

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Extend Decline -- Market Talk

0954 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower with the market continuing to shrug at summer heat while focusing on strong production, abundant inventories and soft LNG feedgas. High renewable power generation is also seen limiting the amount of gas that would be used to meet air conditioning demand, despite temperatures reaching triple digits in Texas and elsewhere. "Where temperatures are comfortable is across portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. "However, even with hot weather patterns, power burns have been under-performing." Nymex natural gas is down 1.4% at $2.728/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

--

Grains Follow Crude Lower -- Market Talk

0902 ET - CBOT grain futures continue to take their cue from crude this week, with both sliding as optimism builds for a diplomatic solution to end the U.S.-Iran conflict. Because row crops like corn and soybeans are used as feedstock for renewable fuels, they're exposed to crude oil price moves, making today's 2% fall in oil futures a pressure point. "Trump says the U.S. and Iran are having good talks and optimism towards a peace deal being worked out has increased," say analysts with AgMarket.net in a note. CBOT soybeans are down 0.4% premarket, and wheat falls 0.8%, while corn remains up 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

--

Oil Futures Extend Decline on Hopes for Talks -- Market Talk

0826 ET - Oil futures extend losses to a third session as the U.S. and Iran continue a pause in their attacks while Iran and Oman explore ways to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of a diplomatic off-ramp could keep crude under pressure, although risk premium could be quickly reignited and push prices back above $100, says Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu. "The Middle East conflict has in fact widened," he says, with Houthis attacking Saudi facilities and shipping in the Red Sea. "Any sustained disruption there could leave a market already running on low inventories with limited room to respond." WTI is down 1.3% at $81.55 a barrel and Brent is down 1.6% at $86.96. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

--

Oil Revenue Supports Gulf Economies as Conflict Threatens Private-Sector Growth -- Market Talk

1256 GMT - Gulf economies are receiving near-term support from elevated oil prices, but prolonged regional uncertainty threatens longer-term private-sector growth. Higher oil prices are supporting fiscal and external revenues in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman despite risks that prolonged uncertainty could weaken business confidence, private-sector activity and foreign direct investment, S&P Global Ratings says in a report. The ratings agency says easing export obstructions could also benefit Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, while Oman is well-positioned to capture trade through more secure maritime routes and Dubai's Jebel Ali port could face higher operating costs. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

--

Iran War Accelerates Competition Among Gulf States -- Market Talk

1233 GMT - Supply disruptions from the Iran war are accelerating competition among Gulf states as they pursue national energy strategies. The United Arab Emirates is seeking to raise oil production toward capacity following its exit from OPEC, while Qatar is moving ahead with expansion of liquefied-natural-gas production from its North Field, S&P Global Ratings says in a report. The moves signal a more aggressive effort by Gulf governments to generate returns from their natural-resource endowments, the ratings agency says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

--

Oil Futures Extend Decline on Hopes for Talks -- Market Talk

0826 ET - Oil futures extend losses to a third session as the U.S. and Iran continue a pause in their attacks while Iran and Oman explore ways to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of a diplomatic off-ramp could keep crude under pressure, although risk premium could be quickly reignited and push prices back above $100, says Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu. "The Middle East conflict has in fact widened," he says, with Houthis attacking Saudi facilities and shipping in the Red Sea. "Any sustained disruption there could leave a market already running on low inventories with limited room to respond." WTI is down 1.3% at $81.55 a barrel and Brent is down 1.6% at $86.96. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

--

Gold Back Below $4,100 As Investors Await Fed Speech -- Market Talk

0713 GMT - Gold prices are under renewed pressure, slipping back below $4,100 an ounce as investors await remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh this week. The market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday has risen to 38% from 31.5% on Monday, although most analysts still expect the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged. Markets are now fully pricing in a rate hike at the September meeting. A higher interest-rate environment typically weighs on nonyielding assets such as gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Meanwhile, traders continue to monitor developments in the Middle East after the U.S. and Iran agreed to pause hostilities. In early trading, New York gold futures are down 0.7% to $4,049.30 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

--

Palm Oil Falls on Lower Soybean Oil, Palm Olein Prices -- Market Talk

0259 GMT - Palm oil falls in early Asian trading, weighed by overnight declines in soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Palm oil is also dragged by softer palm olein on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, he says. In addition, lower crude oil prices are diminishing palm oil's appeal as biofuel, he adds. Ng expects prices to face support at 4,550 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,750 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery is down 25 ringgit at 4,648 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

--

Iron Ore Declines Amid Oversupply Concerns -- Market Talk

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

July 28, 2026 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.