Wheat Futures Top $7/Bushel as Black Sea Hostilities Rage — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

-- Wheat for September delivery rose 4.2% at $7.06 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Wednesday, settling over the $7 mark as geopolitical uncertainty and hot/dry weather in growing areas pushes prices up.

-- Corn for December delivery rose 1.9% to $4.84 1/4 a bushel.

-- Soybeans for November delivery rose 1.3% to $12.38 1/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Over the Threshold: Wheat closed above $7 a bushel Wednesday, the first time since late 2023 that the contract finished that high, according to data from FactSet. Increased tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war are the current driver for higher wheat prices, along with hot temperatures in growing areas around the world, like the U.S. Plains and in Western Europe.

"Recent heat and dryness in the Northern Plains is an important issue, and concern will be elevated again next week with more above 100-degree readings expected," said the Hightower Report in a note.

Oppressive Heat: Market watchers expect extreme heat to return soon to the Corn Belt and wonder how much of a decrease in crop quality next week's crop progress report may show, giving traders belief that the U.S. crop could be smaller than the USDA currently thinks.

"My assumption is ratings decline a fair bit this next week," said Matt Bennett of AgMarket.net in a note. "This corn market could get exciting if we see conditions deteriorate, but there's no way of knowing how this weather might play out."

INSIGHT

Showing Signs: A crop tour headed by the Wheat Quality Council is reporting yield projections for North Dakota down four bushels an acre from the prior year. At 46 bushels an acre, it is still close to the five-year average, but giving grain traders reason to believe that worse yields might soon be reported from the tour.

"Last week's extreme heat shaved bushels from this year's HRS wheat crop," said AgResource in a note.

Better Than Expected: Average daily production of ethanol in the U.S. came in at the high side of analyst forecasts for the week, according to the EIA. Average daily production was 1.094 million barrels a day through the week ended July 17, up 54,000 barrels a day from the prior week. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones forecast sales to be anywhere from 1.02 million barrels a day to 1.1 million barrels a day.

If production had gone over the high end of these forecasts, then it would be the first time in nearly a month that they had done so.

AHEAD

-- The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday.

-- The USDA is due to release its monthly Cattle on Feed Report on Friday at 3 p.m. EDT Friday.

-- The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly cold storage report on Friday at 3 p.m. EDT Friday.

-- The CFTC is due to release its weekly Commitments of Traders Report at 3:30 p.m. EDT Friday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 22, 2026 15:49 ET (19:49 GMT)