Analysts See Decline in U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

By Anthony Harrup

U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to have fallen last week, while product stocks are seen mixed with a decline in gasoline and a small distillate build, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.

Commercial crude stockpiles are seen down by 1 million barrels at 408.7 million barrels in the week ended July 17, according to the average estimate of nine analysts and traders. Eight expect a decline and one predicts an increase, with expectations ranging from a 2.3 million barrel drop to a 3.4 million barrel build.

Gasoline inventories are expected to have fallen by 1.1 million barrels to 209.4 million barrels, with estimates ranging from a 1.1 million barrel increase to a decrease of 2 million barrels.

Stocks of distillate fuel, mostly diesel, are seen edging up by 100,000 barrels to 108.3 million barrels. Forecasts range from a 2.9 million barrel rise to a 3.1 million barrel fall.

Refinery capacity is seen off by one fifth of a percentage point at 96%, with estimates ranging from a 0.3 percentage point increase to a 0.7 percentage point decline. Two analysts didn't forecast refinery runs.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release the inventory data Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

 
                                    Crude    Gasoline  Distillates Refinery Use 
   Again Capital                    -1.9        1.1        1.6       -0.6 
   Confluence Investment Management -0.5       -2.0        1.0       -0.7 
   Rystad Energy                     3.4       -1.8        1.6       -0.2 
   Excel Futures                    -2.3       -1.6        0.7       -0.5 
   Spartan Capital Securities       -1.6       -0.4        2.9        n/f 
   Mizuho                           -2.0       -2.0       -2.0        0.2 
   Price Futures Group              -2.0       -2.0       -2.0       unch 
   Ritterbusch and Associates       -0.6       -1.5       -3.1        0.3 
   Tradition Energy                 -1.1        0.2        0.3        n/f 
 
   AVERAGE                          -1.0       -1.1        0.1       -0.2 
 

Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.

n/f = no forecast

unch = unchanged

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 21, 2026 13:33 ET (17:33 GMT)