Wheat Futures Surge as Ukraine Attacks Ratchet Up — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

-Wheat for September delivery rose 5.1% at $6.77 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday, with traders pricing in Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia that shut down shipping routes through the Sea of Azov.

-Corn for December delivery rose 1.9% to $4.69 1/4 a bushel.

-Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.9% to $12.01 3/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Big Jump: CBOT wheat rose 5% today, climbing in reaction to mounting attacks from Ukraine on Russian shipping vessels in the Sea of Azov. Analysts are reacting to the Ukrainian government's claims that over 100 Russian ships were hit by Ukrainian drones over the past nine days, which is expected to significantly hobble Russia's ability to ship products including wheat. "Retaliation is likely coming for Ukraine's grain export ports and routes, raising global concern over wheat supplies from the Black Sea region," Matt Zeller of StoneX said in a note.

Hot and Dry: The Corn Belt is again hot and dry, with many areas seeing temperatures topping out around 95°F, according to the USDA's daily weather forecast. This gave the grains complex support in trading Wednesday. For corn, the heat comes in the late part of its pollination period, meaning that the heat blanketing growing areas could be impacting corn yields. "Corn rallied smartly on the back of searing hot temperatures for the pollinating plants," analysts with Marex said in a note.

INSIGHT

Complicating Factors: Higher corn prices are seen as a pressure point for livestock producers who have to pay more for animal feed. Surging wheat prices may exacerbate that problem, said Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor. "Wheat can substitute for corn in animal rations to some degree, but if wheat prices get too high, the math does not work," he said. The attacks on Russian tankers resulting in the closure of major shipping lanes could exacerbate the issue. "You can't disrupt the wheat supply from major producers such as Russia and western Europe and expect the system to operate properly."

Higher Figures: This week's export sales report from the USDA may show soybean export sales at their highest in weeks, thanks to a wave of purchases made by Chinese buyers last week. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this week forecast sales to potentially be as high as 2 million metric tons. Grain traders have been accustomed to the USDA reporting sales closer to 300,000 tons, making this week a welcome reversal of fortune.

Mixed Results: Average daily production of ethanol in the U.S. fell below the expectations of analysts surveyed this week by Dow Jones, while stocks rose more than anticipated. The EIA said that average daily ethanol production for the week ended July 10 was 1.04 million barrels a day. That's below analyst forecasts between 1.05 million barrels and 1.105 million barrels a day, and down 53,000 barrels a day from last week's report. U.S. ethanol inventories rose 463,000 barrels from last week, totaling 24.39 million barrels. That brings stocks over the high-end of analyst forecasts for the week, which were between 23 million barrels and 24.05 million barrels.

AHEAD

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday

-The CME Group is scheduled to debut its beef trim futures on Monday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 15, 2026 15:47 ET (19:47 GMT)