World Wheat Prices Surge on Escalating Ukraine-Russia Conflict

By Kirk Maltais

Wheat prices around the world are surging as the upswing in Ukrainian attacks on Russian shipping infrastructure further pressures global supply, which is already being squeezed by abnormally hot weather in the central U.S. and France.

Wheat futures trading in Chicago settled up 5.1% at $6.78 a bushel on Wednesday, according to data from FactSet. Wheat has gained 7% this week, and is up 34% year-to-date.

Paris wheat futures rose 6.9% to 231.50 euros ($265.54) a metric ton Wednesday, according to data from LSEG.

Ukrainian officials said that as of Tuesday, unmanned drones hit 116 Russian vessels in the past nine days. The strikes, targeting oil tankers, halted shipments through the Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov - the body of water between the southern region of the neighboring countries. The region carries roughly 25% of Russia's yearly wheat exports, complicating the global supply and demand picture.

"Ukraine didn't sink the corridor - it made the corridor uninsurable and unusable, and Moscow shut it down," said Jim Wiesemeyer, an analyst with Ag Bull Media.

Russia is the world's leading exporter of wheat, and before the strikes was projected to ship 47.5 million metric tons of wheat in the 2026/27 marketing year, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Ukraine is also among the top exporters of wheat at a projected 14.5 million tons this year, making any retaliation from Russia further damaging for world supplies.

"If things don't get resolved within a few weeks max we could expect substantial cuts to Russian export estimates and also Ukrainian export estimates," said Andrey Sizov, head of Black Sea agricultural research firm SovEcon. "The market is likely to need to add more risk premium to current wheat prices," he said.

Russia-Ukraine fighting was behind the ascent of wheat prices to record-highs in 2022, with CBOT wheat rising to over $12 a bushel in the immediate aftermath of the onset of the war.

Abnormally hot temperatures across several growing areas around the world in June and July, notably the Central U.S. and in western Europe, had already been lifting global wheat prices.

With a winter crop damaged by extensive drought this past winter, U.S. wheat output looks to be at its lowest since 1970, the USDA projected last week.

The "super" El Niño that's taken hold this summer is seen driving the extreme heat, and its effects may extend into South American grain production. For Argentina, where an estimated 21 million tons of wheat are expected to be produced this year, the climate system may bring excessive rainfall - while areas of Brazil are impacted by extreme heat and drought.

"There just may not be enough wheat to go around," said Michael Cordonnier, head of research firm Soybean & Corn Advisor. "If attacks continue on Russian shipping, it could get dicey."

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 15, 2026 15:29 ET (19:29 GMT)