North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Rise, Oil Steady Despite Escalation in Middle East

OPENING CALL

Stock futures were on the rise Thursday with oil prices steady after jumping the previous session.

The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire again last night, with Washington saying it struck 90 military targets. Trump said that Iran called him in search of a deal, though Tehran didn't say anything about new talks.

Brent crude futures, which rose above $80 a barrel in the previous session, were just above $77.

"The market has become accustomed to the tensions and the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The surprise factor is much smaller than it was at the beginning, and the market's overreaction is therefore more limited," Swissquote said.

For the day ahead, investors will watch for weekly U.S. initial jobless claims data, existing home sales and speeches from regional Fed presidents John Williams and Lorie Logan.

The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes showed policymakers were split over the future course of rates.

The minutes were more balanced than the "hawkish interpretation" of the June press conference which boosted expectations for rate rises, Jefferies said.

"Our view remains that as long as oil prices don't flare up significantly, we do not see a hike from the Fed this year

and still expect the next move to be a cut (potentially next year)."

Investors were also turning some of their attention back to the AI trade ahead of the debut of SK Hynix's U.S.-listed shares tomorrow. The South Korean chip giant is expected to price its offering later today.

Stocks to watch

Levi Strauss: Despite beating earnings expectations in its second-quarter report yesterday evening, the jeans maker failed to impress some on Wall Street, and shares fell in premarket trading.

PepsiCo, Aritzia: The food-and-beverage company is due to report earnings this morning; Aritzia is also scheduled to post results later today.

Watch For:

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims; U.S. Existing Home Sales for June; PepsiCo 2Q earnings; Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden, FRB New York President John Williams and FRB Dallas President Lorie Logan speak at The Future of Market Liquidity and Functioning Workshop

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- Inside Trump's Oval Office Decision to Ditch the Iran Ceasefire

- China Weighs Limits on the AI Models American Companies Love

- China's Ascent in Biotech Rousts U.S. Venture Capitalists to Adapt

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar eased

after the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes showed policymakers were divided over the future path of interest rates. The minutes were more balanced than the "hawkish interpretation" of the June press conference which boosted expectations for rate rises, Jefferies said.

The euro rose. Expectations that the European Central Bank could deliver another interest-rate rise in September was supporting the currency, ING said.

Sterling rose to a one-year high against the euro and a three-week high versus the dollar as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions boosts expectations that the Bank of England could raise interest rates in response to elevated oil prices.

Bonds:

Treasury yields looked to stabilize in early trade after hitting multiweek highs Wednesday, prompted by Trump's announcement that the ceasefire with Iran was over.

Energy:

Oil prices were lower after rising earlier in the session. Even with today's modest losses, oil prices are still significantly higher than they were before this week's clashes.

Metals:

Gold prices climbed back above $4,100 a troy ounce after Wednesday's selloff, with New York futures up 0.6% to $4,107.90. The rebound was supported by a softer U.S. dollar and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes again on Wednesday.

Iron

Iron ore rose in early trade. The surge in shipments earlier this year is largely subsided due to seasonal easing in July, Nanhua Futures said.

   TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES 

AstraZeneca Says Wainua Trial Failed to Meet Primary Goal

AstraZeneca said the trial for its Wainua drug on a rare type of heart disease didn't meet its primary objective, at a time when the company's drug pipeline outside oncology is in focus.

The U.K. drugmaker said Thursday that Wainua was generally well tolerated, with a safety profile consistent with previous results. However, it failed to meet the primary efficacy endpoint compared with placebo when treating transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy.

China's Zhipu AI Shares Surge on $4 Billion Fundraising

Shares of Zhipu AI rose sharply after the Chinese artificial-intelligence company announced plans for a US$4 billion fundraising to support growth, despite pricing the new shares at a discount.

The stock surged as much as 22% in early Thursday trading, before paring the gains. The stock recently traded 9% higher at 1,989.00 Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to US$253.72, outperforming the benchmark Hang Seng Tech Index's 0.1% decline.

Airbnb Puts Down Roots Behind Enemy Lines by Buying Its First NYC Office

New York City told short-term rental companies to get lost. Airbnb is putting down roots anyway.

The San Francisco-based company acquired 281 Park Avenue South, a landmarked building one block north of Manhattan's exclusive Gramercy Park.

The $80 Billion Debt Cloud Hanging Over David Ellison's Warner Deal

When Paramount Chief Executive David Ellison unveiled his company's $81 billion deal for Warner Bros. Discovery, he touted a new golden era for Hollywood-one built on scale, technology and a promise to release at least 30 theatrical movies a year.

His plan has little margin for error.

China Weighs Limits on the AI Models American Companies Love

American companies have a new AI addiction: cheaper Chinese models. But as the race for artificial-intelligence supremacy heats up, Beijing is considering tightening its grip on homegrown technology.

Across Silicon Valley, models made by Chinese companies such as DeepSeek and Moonshot AI have become core to daily work at companies large and small, offering a less costly alternative and supplement to the products of OpenAI and Anthropic.

German Exports Rise, Shrugging off Iran War Concerns

Germany's exports increased in May, driven by U.S. trade, as manufacturers proved relatively resilient to uncertainty prompted by the Iran war.

Seasonally adjusted exports from Germany were 0.9% higher than in April, reaching 137.9 billion euros ($157.4 billion), the highest level since September 2022, statistics agency Destatis said Thursday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a 0.6% decline.

China's Factory-Price Growth Quickens, Consumer Inflation Eases

China's factory-gate inflation accelerated in June as the effects of the Middle East conflict continued to ripple through the economy, but consumer-price gains cooled, suggesting persistent weakness in domestic demand.

The producer-price index jumped 4.1% from a year earlier in June, quickening from a 3.9% increase in May, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday, in line with economists' projections in a Wall Street Journal survey.

U.S., Iran Exchange Fire After Trump Declares Ceasefire Over

The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire again on Wednesday night after President Trump pronounced the end of an eight-week ceasefire. The U.S. pounded targets that included missile and drone sites near the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran fired on Kuwait and Bahrain, which host U.S. military bases, according to a senior U.S. official.

The U.S. struck 90 military targets to "further degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping and innocent civilian mariners in the Strait of Hormuz," U.S. Central Command said in a statement that noted the end of the latest strikes.

Ukraine's Six-Part Strategy to Survive the Global Run on Patriot Missiles

KYIV, Ukraine-Ukraine is running out of U.S.-made Patriot interceptor missiles, leaving its cities nearly defenseless against Russia's escalating barrages of ballistic missiles.

What can Ukraine do about it?

Graham Platner Ends Maine Senate Campaign After Sexual Assault Allegation

Democratic nominee Graham Platner said he would abandon his campaign for Senate in Maine, ending a run for office that had drawn broad grassroots support but was plagued by a growing series of controversies.

Platner's decision came just days after he was publicly accused by a former romantic partner of sexual assault, which he denied. The move allows the state Democratic Party to find a replacement on the November ballot to face incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins, in what Democrats consider a must-win seat in their fight to take back the chamber.

U.S. Targets One of Cuba's Last Lifelines: Its Army of Overseas Doctors

The Trump administration's pressure campaign against Cuba's Communist government is zeroing in on the island's most valuable export and one of its few remaining sources of hard currency: the doctors and nurses it deploys abroad.

The U.S. has blocked fuel shipments, sanctioned and indicted its top officials and curbed money Cubans abroad send to relatives back home. Now, the effort to throttle Cuba's decades-old medical missions-through which Havana gets payments to export doctors and nurses to more than 50 countries-threatens billions of dollars in revenue for a country already in economic free fall.

Write to priscila.barrera@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings:

Aritzia Inc. 1Q

Organigram Global 3Q

Economic Indicators (ET):

Nothing major scheduled.

Stocks to Watch:

Firan Technology 2Q Adj Net Income CAD 5.07M; 2Q Adj EBITDA CAD 10.5M; 2Q EPS CAD 0.20; Reports 2Q Revenue of CAD 52.7 Million, Compared With FactSet Estimates of CAD 52.4 Million

Intact Financial Corporation Announces Second Quarter Catastrophe and Large Losses Estimate

Neo Performance Materials FY Outlook Adj EBITDA $140M - 150M

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July 09, 2026 06:10 ET (10:10 GMT)

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