Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Jobs Data in Focus -2-

Analysts at Nomura said the RBA has indicated there is little it can do about near-term inflation readings and continues to believe Australia's rate-hike cycle has ended.

Capital Economics, however, believes there is still room for further tightening as policymakers seek to slow activity sufficiently to bring inflation under control.

South Korea

South Korea is set to release trade data on Wednesday and inflation data on Thursday. The trade-dependent economy is expected to post stronger export growth in June, driven largely by robust semiconductor demand, with the monthly trade surplus forecast to exceed $30 billion for the first time, according to a survey of economists.

The median forecast in a Wall Street Journal poll of nine economists is for exports to rise 57.3% from a year earlier, accelerating from May's revised 53.4% increase.

Imports are projected to rise 23.5% on year, resulting in a $32.00 billion trade surplus in June, the poll showed. Chips and computers are expected to remain the main drivers of export growth, which is likely to stay above 50% through the second half of 2026, according to Meritz Securities Chief Economist Seunghoon Stephen Lee.

Investors will also closely watch the inflation data ahead of the Bank of Korea's policy meeting in July. Most analysts expect the consumer price index to rise at a faster pace in June amid higher oil prices and the won's weakness against the U.S. dollar.

Consumer prices rose 3.1% from a year earlier in May, accelerating from 2.6% in April. The stronger-than-expected inflation reading prompted Barclays to bring forward its forecast for the Bank of Korea to resume policy tightening. The bank now expects the central bank to begin raising rates in July rather than August.

Barclays expects the BOK to deliver additional rate increases, possibly in October this year and April next year.

Asian PMIs

Manufacturing PMI readings for export powerhouses Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, as well as Southeast Asian economies, including Thailand and Vietnam, are due Wednesday. The surveys will be closely watched as manufacturers continue to face intensifying cost pressures.

Flash June PMIs showed inflation remains elevated despite easing energy prices, as global supply chains continue to normalize only gradually. Economic growth across the region has maintained resilient despite the energy shock, supported largely by government subsidies, front-loading of demand and strong AI hardware exports, HSBC economist said.

While headline manufacturing PMIs continue to point to accelerating growth and solid new orders, HSBC said much of the strength is being driven by AI hardware demand, which is "benefiting the few and masking stagnation elsewhere," highlighting underlying fragility.

Indonesia

Indonesia's June inflation is expected to rise to 3.26% from 3.08% in May, driven by higher transport costs following the increase in RON92 fuel prices, while subsidized fuel prices remain unchanged, ANZ economists Kausani Basak and Khoon Goh said in a note.

Food and core inflation are also expected to accelerate, supported by volatile food prices, a weaker rupiah and rising input costs.

While inflation remains manageable, Bank Indonesia's policy outlook is likely to hinge more on rupiah stability than inflation alone, suggesting the tightening cycle isn't yet over, ANZ said.

Indonesia's May exports are expected to increase modestly, while imports might rise more sharply due to the weaker rupiah and higher global oil and energy prices.

Any references to days are in local times.

Write to Renae Dyer at renae.dyer@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 26, 2026 07:54 ET (11:54 GMT)