EMEA Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Fall Amid Mixed Signals From U.S.-Iran Talks

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Eurozone, Germany, U.K., France PMI; France manufacturing sentiment; trading update from Bunzl

Opening Call:

European stock futures traded lower early Tuesday. Asian stock benchmarks weakened; the dollar inched higher; Treasury yields were lower; while oil futures and gold lost ground.

Equities:

Stock futures point to a lower open in Europe, amid mixed signals from talks between the U.S. and Iran on ending the conflict.

The U.S. cleared the way for Iran to sell oil in dollars, including to U.S. buyers. The decision temporarily dismantles sanctions imposed on Tehran's oil industry, making it easier for the regime to repatriate profits from its crude exports.

"[Vice President JD] Vance described the first round of negotiations as 'very, very good' and said Iran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors back into the country," said Carol Kong, economist and currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, in a research report.

On the other hand, however, Iran said that Vance's assertion was "false and does not reflect reality," Kong noted.

Forex:

"Don't expect this year's [U.K.] Labour Party leadership contest to mirror the mini-budget crisis that followed the Conservative Party's contest in 2022," DBS analysts said in a research report.

The current transition is designed to work alongside the markets and independent regulators, effectively neutralizing the risk of a sudden, volatile institutional shock, the analysts said. The pound sterling may yet hold the 1.30-1.39 range set against the dollar after President Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, they said.

Bonds:

Treasury yields fell after jumping overnight even as U.S. oil prices receded below $74 a barrel, a level last seen nearly four months ago.

During almost four months of the Iran war, Treasury yields and crude prices broadly moved in the same direction because war spending and higher energy costs tend to stoke inflation.

"This volatility is here to stay," said Clayton Triick, head of portfolio management at Angel Oak Capital Advisors. "With less forward guidance [from the Fed], there's more volatility," Triick added.

Energy:

Oil futures weakened. However, oil prices may be supported by concerns over the progress of oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which one-fifth of the world's oil is typically transported. There are worries that the recent surge of tankers through the strait may not be sustained, ANZ Research analysts said. The analysts cite Iran as saying that any transit would require mandatory insurance policies, which are presently free but could be charged for in the future.

Metals:

Gold futures pulled back, with further downside seen in the near term.

"Removing the Fed bias to easing will likely put pressure on last gasp gold support just in front of the strategic 4,000 [per troy ounce] level, with cascading stop levels possibly pushing sharply lower with no significant support level below," said Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities USA in a note, referencing the hawkish move taken by the Federal Reserve in its commentary last week.

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Copper was lower in early Asian trading, weighed by easing supply concerns and softer demand. Global copper concentrate shipments have increased since April, suggesting some improvement in mine supply, according to Xinda Futures analysts. While near-term downside pressure may persist, the longer-term support from constrained mine supply and electrification-related demand remains intact.

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Iron ore lost ground in Asian trading amid weakening demand, Nanhua Futures analysts said. Higher coke prices are squeezing steel mills' rebar margins, curbing appetite for additional ore purchases. Downstream restocking demand also remains subdued, the analysts added.

Meanwhile, supply conditions remain loose, with iron ore shipments to China rising sharply as producers ramp up volumes. Against the current backdrop, prices are expected to trend lower in search of a bottom, Nanhua said.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

U.S. Allows Iran to Sell Oil in Dollars for First Time in Decades

ZURICH-The U.S. cleared the way for Iran to sell oil in dollars, including to U.S. buyers, a reversal that came as Vice President JD Vance said Tehran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors to return as early as this week.

The Treasury Department on Monday waived longstanding sanctions on those sales for two months while talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address the issues of Iran's nuclear program and further sanctions relief proceed. For years, Iran used a shadowy network of tankers under sanctions to sell its crude, primarily to China.

Nonstop Trading, Loads of Leverage. How 'Perp Futures' Are Shaking Up Wall Street.

A newfangled kind of derivative that trades at all hours and with leverage grew into a sensation in overseas markets. And now that these perpetual futures are landing on U.S. shores, shares of the incumbent exchanges are taking a hit.

Late last month, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved the listing of perpetual-futures contracts tied to cryptocurrencies at prediction-markets platform Kalshi, and allowed Coinbase Global's U.S. customers to access its global perpetuals. The agency also unveiled a regulatory framework that offered registered U.S. platforms a path to launching their own "perps."

Germany's RWE Plans $4.75 Billion Capital Raise to Fund Increase in Amprion Stake

RWE said it aims to raise billions of euros via a capital increase as it looks to take majority control of one of Germany's transmission-system operators.

The German energy firm said Monday that it will sell around 74.4 million new shares to institutional investors via an accelerated bookbuild. Based on Monday's closing price of 55.60 euros a RWE share, that would net the company some EUR4.14 billion ($4.75 billion). However, the final placement price will be determined following the conclusion of the bookbuild.

The Forces That Broke the Two-Party System in the U.K.

LONDON-Nigel Farage has never held a position in the British government. As leader of the anti-immigration party Reform UK, he oversees just eight lawmakers in Parliament. Among voters, he has one of the lowest favorability ratings of any politician.

Yet when his upstart party, in May local elections, handed the ruling Labour Party its worst drubbing in the postwar period, it turned Prime Minister Keir Starmer's own party against him.

SpaceX, Fresh Off Its Historic IPO, Readies Its Bond-Market Debut

SpaceX's stock-market debut earlier this month helped lift the major indexes to new highs. The company's opening bond sale faces a more-challenging backdrop.

Elon Musk's rocket and satellite company is expected to issue more than $20 billion in bonds. SpaceX's underwriters were speaking with prospective investors on Monday, and the offering is expected to price as early as Tuesday, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Top-Paid CEOs Smash the $200-Million Payday

The $100-million-plus CEO is back with a bang, just a year after nine-figure pay packages seemed to be fading.

More U.S. CEOs last year crossed the once-rare pay threshold than in any year since 2021-and nearly a dozen topped $200 million.

See How Sam Altman's Personal Investments Benefit From Ties to OpenAI

Much of Sam Altman's wealth is tied up in a vast network of tech companies that include everything from nuclear fusion to a startup trying to create a new city on the Mediterranean.

A growing number of them have entered into business partnerships with OpenAI, creating a web of investments that are receiving scrutiny ahead of the company's planned IPO. Last month, the House Oversight Committee launched a probe into Altman's potential conflicts, and several attorneys general called for a Securities and Exchange Commission review.

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Expected Major Events for Tuesday

06:00/DEN: Jun Business tendency survey

06:00/EU: May New Passenger Car Registrations in Europe statistics (EU27 + EFTA3)

06:45/FRA: Jun Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries)

07:00/SWI: 1Q Balance of Payments

07:00/SPN: Apr Trade Balance

07:15/FRA: Jun France Flash PMI

07:30/GER: Jun Germany Flash PMI

08:00/POL: May Agricultural prices

08:00/EU: Jun Eurozone Flash PMI

08:30/UK: Jun Flash UK PMI

10:00/UK: Jun CBI Industrial Trends Survey

12:00/HUN: Jun Hungarian interest rate decision

12:00/POL: May Broad money M3

15:59/UKR: May PPI

16:59/SPN: 1Q Quarterly Balance of Payments

17:59/POR: Apr ICSG Copper Report

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June 23, 2026 00:23 ET (04:23 GMT)

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