AGS WEEK AHEAD: Inflation Data in Focus

By Joe Stonor

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of June 22-26 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: Markets reacted sharply to Kevin Warsh's first Federal Reserve policy meeting as chair last week, with investors increasingly pricing in multiple rate hikes this year.

Higher interest rates typically drag on prices for agricultural commodities. Hence, Thursday's U.S. PCE data will be closely watched--a strong print will bolster economists' rate hike expectations, further weighing on agricultural commodities.

Lower oil prices also drag on the sector. Investors will, therefore, watch ongoing U.S.-Iran peace talks closely. The weekend brought reports of substantive progress between the two sides, leading to a modest fall in oil.

Corn and soybean investors will monitor ongoing drought in North Carolina, with prolonged dry conditions delaying flowering. However, broader weather forecasts remain non-threatening--removing weather risk premium from prices, analysts at Peak Trading Research wrote in a note to clients.

Agricultural commodities typically perform poorly in June, the analysts said.

Soybean exports to China rose 1.8% on year in May, as an export agreement between the U.S. and China held firm. The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed the sale of 132,000 tons of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year, officials said Thursday.

Wheat futures slipped 0.8% in Chicago to $6.09 a bushel in European afternoon trade Monday, while corn futures edged 0.5% lower to $4.15 a bushel. Soybeans edged up 0.3% to $11.46 a bushel.

SOFT COMMODITIES:

Cocoa prices strengthened sharply Monday. The emergence of El Nino weather conditions continued to muddy the longer-term supply outlook, even amid favorable growing conditions in the Ivory Coast and Ghana.

Meanwhile, the Cocoa and Coffee Farmers Alliance Association of Africa warned that underinvestment in cocoa farming could cause prices to rise back above $10,000 a metric ton, the industry body told Vanguard.

ICE cocoa contracts rose 6% to $4,490 a metric ton Monday.

Robusta coffee slipped 1.9% to $3,569 a metric ton, while Arabica coffee prices moved 0.6% lower to $2.73 a pound.

Sugar futures fell 0.9% to 14 cents a pound. India likely won't export sugar for at least three more seasons as El Nino bites on stockpiles, Reuters reported Monday, citing industry sources.

Write to Joe Stonor at josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 22, 2026 09:37 ET (13:37 GMT)