Wheat Futures Decline as Fund Traders Pull Out — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

-Wheat for July delivery fell 2.2% to $6.21 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday, with fund traders cutting out of long wheat contracts despite poor winter wheat health.

-Corn for July delivery fell 1.2% to $4.52 a bushel.

-Soybeans for July delivery were virtually unchanged at $11.85 1/2 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Technical Trade: CBOT wheat futures led the grain complex lower today, with fund traders seen driving prices down. "Either there are a lot of people who don't believe the government on the size of the U.S. crop, or else there are a lot of longs in the market that have been forced out due to margin calls," said Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. This in spite of the USDA reporting a one-point drop in condition ratings in this week's Crop Progress report, moving it to 26% good or excellent, which would typically signal a constrained winter wheat crop.

Nearing the End: The USDA said in its report that planting of U.S. row crops is nearly complete. The government says 86% of the U.S. corn crop is planted as of this week, while 79% of the soybean crop is planted. For corn, this is on par with where it was this time last year. For soybeans, this is 4 points more than the same time last year. Rainfall in crop-growing areas this week is expected to help push these crops over the finish line, said Joe Davis of Futures International. Spring wheat is also 86% planted, on par with this time last year, although the winter wheat crop conditions remain low.

Mitigating Factors: CBOT corn and soybean futures rebounded in morning trade after trading lower pre-market. Some support came from comments from USTR Jamieson Greer stating that a Federal Register notice will soon be published starting the public comment process for the Board of Trade concept that emerged during the summit between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Greer also commented on potential tariff reduction, which supports grains.

INSIGHT

Taking Center Stage: How an El Niño climate system develops and affects weather in growing areas in the U.S. is slowly becoming the primary trader focus, according to analysts with StoneX. In a note, analysts say that traders are looking to previous examples of how El Niño behaved to get a sense of how it may impact U.S. crops this summer. But analysts also note that while the influence of El Niño could be a factor that lifts prices, it's not a factor present in trading at the moment.

Piling Up: Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week are forecasting that U.S. ethanol inventories will grow for the week ended May 22. Analysts say that they expect stockpiles to land anywhere between 24.925 million barrels and 26.1 million barrels. This range would be above last week's reported level of 24.875 million barrels. Analysts forecast production between 1.06 million barrels a day and 1.125 million barrels a day.

AHEAD

-Hormel Foods will release its second quarter 2026 earnings report at 6:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

-The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at noon. ET Thursday.

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its monthly Agricultural Prices report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 27, 2026 15:05 ET (19:05 GMT)