Oil Refreshes War-Time Highs as Hopes of U.S.-Iran Resolution Dim

By Ronnie Harui and Sherry Qin

Oil extended gains in Asia as market hopes of a resolution to the U.S.-Iran standoff dim again.

Front-month Brent crude oil futures rose to the highest in over four years on Thursday as fresh headlines fueled pessimism about progress on peace talks.

The Wall Street Journal cited U.S. officials as saying that President Trump has told aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran.

Remarks from the president on Truth Social also appeared to signal tougher rhetoric.

"Iran can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!," Trump posted on the social media site, accompanied by an image of himself with the slogan "No More Mr. Nice Guy."

The longer that tensions keep restricting shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, the longer energy prices will remain elevated and the bigger the global economic toll will be, analysts say.

S&P Global Ratings has raised its assumptions for West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil by $15 a barrel for the remainder of 2026 and by $5 a barrel for 2027.

"The scale of lost supply continues to increase and significantly exceeds early estimates," S&P said in a report.

Front-month Brent crude oil futures jumped 6.0% in afternoon trade to $125.15 a barrel--the highest since March 2022. Front-month WTI futures gained 3.2% to $110.31 a barrel, ICE data showed.

"The rally in crude oil prices shows no signs of slowing, as the prospect of an indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz weighs on sentiment," ANZ Research analysts said in a note. "The gains suggest investors are bracing for a protracted conflict that could see oil supplies from the Persian Gulf remain curtailed."

Meanwhile, government bonds across Asia fell on dimming prospects of further interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The yield on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond rose 6.5 basis points to 2.525%, the highest intraday level since June 1997, according to data provider Quick.

The yield on Australia's 10-year sovereign securities climbed 8 basis points to 5.0800% and the yield on New Zealand's 10-year government bond rose 3 basis points to 4.7370%. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Although the U.S. central bank held its benchmark federal-funds rate steady in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% on Wednesday, its statement drew dissent from four out of 12 members--the most at a policy meeting since 1992.

"Looking ahead, we expect the next policy move to be a [Fed rate] hike, starting in December, because of higher inflation," Samara Hammoud at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a note.

Write to Ronnie Harui at ronnie.harui@wsj.com and Sherry Qin at sherry.qin@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 30, 2026 01:46 ET (05:46 GMT)