U.K. Population to Grow More Slowly on Fewer Migrants — Update

By Paul Hannon

The U.K.'s population will grow more slowly over coming years than previously expected as fewer migrants move to the country, according to the official statistics agency, a development that would likely slow economic growth.

The Office for National Statistics Tuesday said it now expects the U.K.'s population to total 71 million in 2034, down from 72.2 million in its previous forecast. It estimated the population at 69.3 million people in mid-2024.

With the number of deaths exceeding the number of births, the ONS said population growth would be entirely driven by migration. The ONS lowered its projection for annual inflows to 230,000 from 340,000.

The ONS expects deaths to exceed births by 450,000 during the decade to 2034. It projects that 7.3 million people will move to the country from overseas, while 5.1 million people will leave.

Migration to the U.K. jumped in the years after the Covid-19 pandemic, but fell sharply last year.

The ONS usually projects future flows by taking the average of the previous decade, but has now modified that practice and excluded 2022 through 2024 as years of "unusually high levels of migration."

"This approach provides a long-term average for future migration, which is likely to be more representative of prevailing trends and is closer to expert views on the potential range within which we may see average long-term net international migration," it said.

The current and previous governments have tightened restrictions on who can live and work in the country, while many of the country's political parties have expressed more negative views of immigration.

The population projections produced by the ONS are used by a wide variety of government departments and agencies, including the Office for Budget Responsibility, which monitors government debt.

A smaller population usually translates into slower economic growth, and fewer taxpayers to help fund the debt. Some economists expect to see a sharper decline in immigration, reflecting tighter rules, greater hostility to migrants and weaker growth prospects.

Earlier this year, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research warned that U.K. economy would be smaller, its debts larger and taxes higher within 15 years if immigration were to end.

"Despite evidence of a substantial drop in net immigration, the government and key opposition parties continue to advocate reducing levels further," economists at Oxford Economics said in a note to clients.

Write to Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 28, 2026 05:35 ET (09:35 GMT)