Goldman Lifts Oil Price Forecast on Lower Gulf Output
By Giulia Petroni
Goldman Sachs raised its year-end oil price forecasts, citing lower output from the Persian Gulf and longer-than-expected disruptions to exports due to the Iran war.
The U.S. bank now expects Brent crude to average $90 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate $83, up from prior estimates of $80 and $75, respectively.
The forecast assumes Gulf exports normalize by the end of June and a slower recovery in regional production. Goldman expects the market to swing from a surplus of 1.8 million barrels a day in 2025 to a deficit of 9.6 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026.
Global oil demand is projected to fall by 1.7 million barrels a day on year in the second quarter and by 100,000 barrels a day for the full year, reflecting higher refined-product prices.
The bank estimates that roughly 14.5 million barrels a day of lost Persian Gulf production are driving global inventory draws at a record pace of 11 million to 12 million barrels a day in April.
However, such steep inventory draws are unlikely to be sustained. "Even sharper demand losses could be required if the supply shock persists longer," Goldman said.
Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 27, 2026 04:07 ET (08:07 GMT)
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