North American Morning Briefing: Investors Weigh Iran Deal Prospects As Deadline Looms

OPENING CALL

Crude oil futures hovered around $111 a barrel, and stock futures edged up, reversing earlier falls as investors remained on edge ahead of Trump's Tuesday night deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump threatened to take out Iran "in one night" if a deal waisn't made before the deadline. However, he also said Iran was an "active, willing participant" in wanting to reach a deal.

"Markets walk a fine line between escalation fears and cease-fire hopes, with a new deadline looming," Commerzbank said.

The dollar turned lower and Treasury yields stablized after pushing higher earlier.

"While the energy shock could indeed temporarily boost inflation, we believe that a return to the inflation rates seen in 2022 is unlikely ," Russell Investments said.

The CPI report for March on Friday is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's mind about holding interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, it added.

Russell Investments continues to think that interest rate hikes by the Fed seem very unlikely in 2026.

Stocks to Watch

Broadcom rose 3% premarket after it said it would develop and supply custom AI chips to Google and additional computing capacity to Anthropic.

Health insurers, including UnitedHealth, Humana, Elevance Health, CVS Health, Molina Healthcare and Centene rallied premarket after the government improved the initial Medicare Advantage rate increase for next year .

Watch For:

Durable Goods for February; Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks at Detroit Economic Club event; Earnings from Levi Strauss after the closing bell.

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MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar turned lower against a basket of currencies as oil prices eased and demand for safe-haven assets waned.

ING said the dollar should remain in demand unless there's a cease-fire reached in the Middle East conflict or a prolonged postponement of Trump's Tuesday night deadline for a deal with Iran

The euro was likely to fall if the ECB doesn't raise interest rates on April 30, even if energy prices remain high due to the Iran war, ING said.

Bonds:.

Treasury yields stabilized after rising earlier, but sentiment remained fragile ahead of the Tuesday-night deadline to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Stabilization in short-dated bonds shows that there is potentially a switch from a myopic focus on inflation and how much central banks may need to hike interest rates to concerns around demand destruction, the hit to consumption, growth and labor markets, BlueBay said.

Energy:

Oil prices rose.

"Oil is holding its gains because the battlefield risk is no longer theoretical," said Phillip Nova. "Attacks on energy and shipping assets continue, and traders fear that even if the war ends, damage to infrastructure could sideline barrels for months, not days."

Metals:

Gold prices ticked lower as traders remained cautious.

"Risk appetite was impacted by Trump's threats to attack Iran's energy infrastructure," ANZ said.

Copper

Copper was higher in early trading. Prices were likely to stay range-bound in the near term, according to Nanhua Futures.

Goldman Sachs now expects three-month futures at an average of $12,650 , compared with previous estimates of $12,850.

Aluminum

Aluminum rose in early trading.

"LME aluminium prices are up more than 10% since the start of the Iran war, reflecting a rising geopolitical risk premium and growing concern that Middle Eastern disruptions could translate into sustained tightness rather than short-lived supply shocks," ING said.

Aluminum supply losses amid the Middle East conflict could persist through 2026, said Morgan Stanley.

   TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES 

Ackman's Pershing Square Offers to Buy Universal Music Group for More Than $63 Billion

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital said it had made an offer to buy Universal Music Group, valuing the record label behind Taylor Swift and Bad Bunny at more than $63.48 billion.

The deal for the world's largest music company is expected to close by the end of the year and would involve Universal merging with Pershing Square Sparc Holdings, an SEC-registered acquisition company. The newly-created company would be based in Nevada and would shift its stock listing from Amsterdam to the New York Stock Exchange, Pershing said.

LG Electronics Expects First-Quarter Earnings Rebound

LG Electronics projected a solid earnings rebound, driven by record first-quarter revenue and improving profitability in its home-appliance, television and vehicle-component businesses.

The South Korean consumer-electronics giant guided for an above-consensus operating profit in the January-March period after posting its first loss in nine years in the previous quarter, raising hopes for a recovery this year.

Anthropic in Talks to Invest $200 Million in New Private-Equity Venture

Anthropic is planning to invest $200 million in a new venture with major private-equity firms that aims to sell AI tools to their portfolio companies, continuing a push for business customers.

General Atlantic, Blackstone, and Hellman & Friedman are among the private-equity firms in discussions to back the project, people familiar with the matter said. The startup is in talks to raise $1 billion for the effort including Anthropic's planned contribution, the people said.

ECB's Wunsch Open to April Rate Rise, More May Follow if Crisis Lasts

The European Central Bank may have to raise its key interest rate a number of times if the energy crisis caused by the conflict in the Middle East proves long-lasting, with a first move possible later this month, the head of Belgium's central bank said in an interview conducted Monday.

The ECB last month left its key interest rate unchanged at 2%, but set out a number of ways in which developments in the conflict might affect the eurozone's economic outlook.

Saudi Arabia Raises Crude Prices to Record Premiums as Iran War Strains Global Supply

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia raised the price of its oil grades to record premiums, as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz choked off supplies out of the Persian Gulf and roiled global energy markets.

State oil producer Saudi Aramco on Monday set the official selling price for May loadings of its Arab Light crude to Asia-the largest destination for Middle Eastern crude-at $19.50 above the Oman/Dubai regional benchmarks, up from a premium of $2.50 a barrel in April.

China Caps Rise in Fuel Prices as Middle East War Drives Up Energy Costs

China has capped a sharp rise in domestic fuel prices as governments across the region look to cushion consumers and business against energy-driven inflation stemming from the fallout of war in the Middle East.

Chinese authorities said Tuesday that under the country's biweekly pricing mechanism, gasoline and diesel prices should have risen by 800 yuan and 770 yuan a ton, respectively. Instead, they will go up by 420 yuan and 400 yuan. The changes take effect at midnight.

Allies Fear They Are Tied to an Erratic U.S. and Now Have Nowhere to Turn

Crowning a year of disputes with the Trump administration over trade tariffs, support for Ukraine and the future of Greenland, the Iran war has placed America's friends in Europe, Asia and the Middle East in front of an uneasy dilemma.

Their most important ally is acting in ways that they see as erratic and that have already caused hardship and uncertainty. The war has sapped their economies and even bigger shocks loom if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, deepening the worldwide energy crisis.

North Korea's Surprise Offering to the South: Presidential Flattery

SEOUL-At a rare Workers' Party congress recently, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's rhetoric grew fiery when discussing his southern neighbors. The South, he said, was the "immutable principal enemy." Pyongyang, if provoked, could very well produce Seoul's "complete collapse."

That made Kim's fresh assessment of South Korean President Lee Jae Myung all the more surprising.

How the Iran War May Be Stopping a Different Full-Scale Conflict

Conflict in the Middle East has rattled global markets and injected a dose of uncertainty into geopolitics over the last month. War is always traumatic but this one may have an unexpected consequence. It might have stopped bloodshed on a different continent.

There is compelling evidence that fuel shortages from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz may have propagated a precarious African peace.

The Next Target for the U.S. and Israel Is Iran's Economy

TEL AVIV-The U.S. and Israel have a set of targets lined up in Iran designed to cripple the country's economy and ensure the regime's recovery from this war is long and painful.

Israel is awaiting authorization from Washington this week to begin striking Iran's energy facilities, an Israeli official said, potentially undermining output in one of the world's major oil-and-gas producers. In a Wall Street Journal interview, President Trump said Sunday the U.S. was prepared to hit all of Iran's bridges and power plants, creating enough damage that it would "take 20 years to rebuild, if they're lucky, if they have a country."

Ukraine's Lesson for Trump: Military Dominance Opens Waterways

KYIV, Ukraine-As the Trump administration grasps for a way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without sending in ground troops, attention is turning to the United Nations-backed deal struck with Ukraine and Russia in 2022 to try to restart critical grain exports.

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April 07, 2026 06:15 ET (10:15 GMT)

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