North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Rise on Optimism for Quick End to War

OPENING CALL

Stock futures were up while oil tumbled as investors have become optimistic that the war in Iran may end soon.

The moves came after Trump said the U.S. was nearing an exit from the Middle East conflict and Iran's president suggested the country was willing to end the war.

First Abu Dhabi Bank's analysts warn that Trump's communication advocates caution."Trump's narrative remains as vague and incoherent as ever, leaving myriad questions as to what will be left behind."

The bank advocates for a cautious approach to risk positioning , with a clear focus on liquidity and credit fundamentals.

Trump is set to give "an important update" on Iran at 9 p.m. ET Wednesday.

Amid fresh signals that the conflict could end soon , futures for Brent crude, slipped overnight from about $105 a barrel to below $100.

"The market is caught between the largest supply disruption in modern history and growing de-escalation rhetoric from Washington," Sparta Commodities said.

The energy supply shock is broadening to other commodities such as metals and fertilizers, Nuveen said. "While truce talks can buoy near-term sentiment and ease oil prices, it's still prudent to position for persistence, not resolution."

Economic insight

Goldman Sachs said market pricing for the U.S. fed funds rate has swung sharply since the start of the Iran war, but the odds of a rate hike this year were low .

"The Fed typically does not tighten in response to oil shocks alone," it added.

Stocks to watch

Nike's shares in the sneaker company tumbled almost 10% in premarket trading after it warned of sales declines ahead, in a sign the company's comeback plan is already faltering.

RH's earnings significantly undershot analysts' estimates, knocking its stock 19% premarket. RH said it was hurt by tariffs and bad weather, and that it expects its revenue to decline in the first quarter.

A number of Baidu's Apollo Go robotaxis froze in traffic in Wuhan city on Tuesday, raising questions about the safety of the Chinese internet giant's self-driving cars. Baidu shares gained over 3% in Hong Kong, amid a broad market rally.

Cal-Maine Foods, Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston: The three food companies report earnings before the bell.

Watch For:

ADP National Employment Report for March; Retail Sales for February; ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI for March; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks before the American Enterprise Institute

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- The Year Is Off to the Strongest Start for Big Deals Ever

- America Now Has an EV Rust Belt. High Gas Prices Won't Rescue It.

- Iran Takes Aim at the Industries Behind the Gulf's Pivot From Oil

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar fell to a one-week low against a basket of currencies as oil prices declined and risk appetite improved on hopes for an imminent end to the Middle East conflict.

The euro inched up. The currency could rise if oil prices slump but markets remainreluctant to price out interest-rate rises for the European Central Bank, ING said.

Sterling could fall against the euro as interest-rate expectations for the Bank of England have more potential to be repriced lower than for the European Central Bank, ING added.

Bonds:

Treasury yields declined . "Renewed optimism on Iran war sends yields and energy prices lower," Danske Bank said.

Nuveen said ten-year Treasury yields have limited scope to fall due to concerns over elevated debt levels and the potential for rate hikes.

However, Commerzbank said the latest relief in bond markets seemed fragile as risks over the long Easter weekend loom large .

Energy:

Oil fell on hopes of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that handled around a fifth of global energy flows before the Middle East conflict.

Oil prices are likely to stay high even if the Iran war ends soon , Capital Economics said.

Metals:

Gold prices extended gains, climbing back above $4,700 a troy ounce.

"The move suggests that bullion is beginning to rebuild momentum , although gains remain measured and still closely tied to currency and oil dynamics," Sucden Financial said.

Gold chart

Comex gold futures' bullish momentum was likely reaccelerating, based on the daily chart, RHB Retail Research said. The precious metal will probably test overhead resistance at $4,800 per ounce.

Copper

Copper rose in early trade. Sentiment in the market for the base metal has been lifted by Chinese economic data, ANZ said.

   TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES 

Microsoft Plans to Invest $5.5 Billion in Singapore by 2029

Microsoft is on track to invest $5.5 billion in cloud and artificial-intelligence infrastructure in Singapore through 2029, as demand for AI skills and computing continues to grow in the city-state.

The U.S. tech giant's vice chair and president, Brad Smith, said Wednesday that the investment will also go toward ongoing operations.

Nike Guides for Sales Declines Ahead as Turnaround Plan Hits Snags

Nike's comeback is hitting some bumps, with the sneaker company projecting sales declines ahead, including a sharp drop in its key China market.

The company said on Tuesday that it expects sales to fall by low-single digits from now through the end of 2026, with a 2% to 4% decline in the current fiscal fourth quarter. Analysts polled by FactSet had forecast a 1.9% increase this quarter.

Baidu's Apollo Go Robotaxis Stall in China's Wuhan

A number of Baidu's Apollo Go robotaxis froze in the middle of traffic in a major Chinese city, forcing passengers to abandon the vehicles, and raising questions over the safety of self-driving cars.

The Wuhan police department said it received multiple reports on Tuesday evening that Apollo Go cars had stalled on the streets of the city, and were unable to move.

U.K. Digital Bank Monzo to Exit U.S.

Digital bank Monzo is closing down its operations in the U.S. in order to focus on growing its business in the U.K. and across Europe.

For the London-based company, stepping away from the U.S.-a market it entered in 2020-is a "deliberate, strategic decision" to scale closer to its U.K. home, where it has 15 million customers, it said in an emailed statement.

Brent Crude Falls Close to $100, Stocks Surge on Peace Hopes

Oil tumbled and stocks jumped as traders met overnight headlines on the Middle East with optimism.

Brent crude oil briefly fell below $100 a barrel, heralding a surge in equity markets and a rally in U.S. Treasurys. The moves came after President Trump said the U.S. was nearing an exit from the Middle East conflict and Iran's president suggested the country was willing to end the war. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates is willing to work with the U.S. and other allies to open the Strait of Hormuz, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Oil Retreats on Hopes of Iran War Resolution

Oil prices fell Wednesday, with the global benchmark Brent crude briefly slipping below $100 a barrel after President Trump signaled he wants to wind down the war in Iran as the conflict entered its fifth week.

In early European trading, the front-month Brent contract for June delivery was down 2.1% to $101.69 a barrel, having earlier fallen to $98, while West Texas Intermediate futures for May traded 2.7% lower to $98.69 a barrel. Natural-gas prices also declined, with the front-month Dutch TTF contract-the European benchmark-down 4.8% to 48.28 euros a megawatt-hour.

Europe's Central Banks Undecided on Need for Rate Rises

Investors have already decided that Europe's central banks are going to raise their key interest rates in an effort to keep a lid on inflation as energy prices surge in the wake of the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.

Some key policymakers are not so sure.

Eurozone Unemployment Inched Up in February

The eurozone's jobless rate edged higher in February, coming off a record low at the start of the year, ahead of the upheaval of the conflict in the Middle East.

Unemployment in the 21-nation currency area rose to 6.2% in February, from the all-time low of 6.1% in January, the European Union's statistics agency Eurostat said Wednesday.

Iran Takes Aim at the Industries Behind the Gulf's Pivot From Oil

The oil states of the Persian Gulf have made great strides to diversify their economies in recent years, but they have also created a new vulnerability: more strategic targets for Iran to hit.

Outgunned militarily, Iran is wreaking economic havoc in the Middle East by attacking factories that produce aluminum and steel, targeting services such as banking and tourism, and disrupting the region's trade in products like fruit.

Irked by U.S. Sanctions, Rwanda Threatens to Stop Fighting Islamic State

KAMPALA, Uganda-Rwanda has found a David versus Goliath way to push back against newly imposed U.S. financial sanctions: The East African country is threatening to stop protecting an Exxon Mobil natural-gas project from Islamist insurgents just as soaring energy prices top President Trump's list of concerns.

For five years, Rwandan troops have been holding Islamic State at bay in volatile northern Mozambique, and analysts fear a sudden pullout would allow militants to capture territory, terrorize locals and disrupt the giant gas-exporting terminal that is under construction there.

U.A.E. Wants to Force Hormuz Open and Is Willing to Join the Fight

The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to become a combatant, after being hit by Iranian attacks.

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April 01, 2026 06:07 ET (10:07 GMT)