DHL Parent Deutsche Post Expects Earnings Growth Despite Uncertain Conditions — 2nd Update

By Dominic Chopping

DHL parent Deutsche Post expects earnings to rise this year, despite anticipating continued uncertainty in the global economic environment.

The German logistics company--also known as DHL Group--said it expects to report earnings before interest and taxes of at least 6.2 billion euros ($7.21 billion) this year, up from the 6.1 billion euros it reported for 2025.

Free cash flow is seen at around 3 billion euros, from 3.2 billion euros in 2025.

"There is still significant geopolitical volatility and uncertainty out there, as we have already seen in the first two months of the year," said Chief Executive Tobias Meyer.

"Our forecast does not assume any improvement in the global economic environment."

Hostilities in the Middle East have ramped up in recent days after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran over the weekend, closing airspace in the region and forcing vessels to seek shelter or reroute.

DHL does have some planes stranded at airports that have been closed, but it has a broad footprint in the area with flexible air cargo operations, Meyer said on an analyst call Thursday.

With constrained air and ocean activity, Meyer said the company will be able to lean on its established road network in the region to move cargo to airports in countries where flights are still operational, such as Saudi Arabia.

However, some container shipping firms are now being forced to offload cargo at unscheduled ports, and if they are offloading in countries that aren't in the region, customers will face significant delays.

"This creates some chaos that needs to be dealt with," Meyer said, noting that at the same time it can create an opportunity for the company.

When ocean transport is disrupted, DHL can benefit as customers seek alternative routes via air freight and road transport.

"As tragic as these conflicts are and as regrettable, given what we do and the segments we are in, we typically benefit from this turmoil more than we have exposure to the downside."

With geopolitical uncertainties expected to persist this year, the company said it would continue to focus on efficiency improvements, active capacity management, and further implementation of its previously announced cost program. The program seeks to reduce the company's cost base by 1 billion euros across its entire operation, with the full impact expected to be realized in 2027.

The program contributed more than 600 million euros to operating profit in 2025, with efficiencies and cost improvements coming from measures including automation, robotics and artificial intelligence, as well as more efficient cargo aircraft and reorganizing operational processes.

The costs-saving program is part of its 2030 strategy that will see it focus on digital sales, growth regions and trends that are expected to define the logistics industry moving forward, including the e-commerce market, delivery services for specialized pharmaceutical and new energy products, and green delivery options.

The strategy also includes the simplification of legal and management structures in its post-and-parcel services in Germany and e-commerce activities and will see it rename the publicly listed parent company from Deutsche Post to DHL, subject to shareholder approval at a meeting in May.

The group made a net profit of 1.06 billion euros in the fourth quarter compared with 1.1 billion euros in the same period a year earlier.

Revenue fell 2.7% to 22.09 billion euros, while operating profit slipped 1.3% to 1.83 billion euros.

A company-compiled consensus had forecast revenue of 22.36 billion euros, EBIT of 1.83 billion euros and net profit of 1.09 billion euros.

The company said it was able to navigate continued trade tensions last year through managing capacity combined with cost-efficiency measures, which helped boost profit despite the dip in revenue due to currency effects and lower volumes on routes to the U.S.

In the final quarter of 2025, its supply chain and post and parcel Germany units both reported an increase in EBIT, while the express shipping, freight forwarding and e-commerce businesses registered declines.

In freight forwarding, the company said the environment is very challenging, with declining freight rates in air and ocean freight and a weak economic situation in Europe hitting road freight.

The express business was marred by lower shipment volumes to the U.S. last year due to higher tariffs and the elimination of the de minimis rule that exempted small-value items from taxes and duties.

The company raised its dividend to 1.90 euros a share from 1.85 euros.

Write to Dominic Chopping at dominic.chopping@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 05, 2026 06:49 ET (11:49 GMT)