Bank of Mexico Raises Forecast for 2026 Economic Growth

By Anthony Harrup

MEXICO CITY--The Bank of Mexico increased its forecast for economic growth this year following a better-than-expected performance in the fourth quarter of 2025.

In its quarterly economic report Thursday, the central bank said it expects gross domestic product to expand 1.6% in 2026, up from its previous estimate of 1.1%. The bank left its GDP forecast at 2.0% for 2027.

The central bank said it still sees moderately faster growth, although from a higher base than previously estimated.

In the fourth quarter, Mexico's GDP grew 0.9% seasonally adjusted from the previous quarter, while third-quarter GDP was revised up to a 0.1% expansion from a previously estimated 0.3% contraction. The economy grew 0.6% in 2025.

Private consumption growth is expected to accelerate gradually in 2026, while investment is likely to remain weak, at least until the second half of the year given uncertainty about the trade relationship with the U.S. and the coming review of the U.S.-Mexico Canada Agreement, the Bank of Mexico said. Exports are expected to continue with moderate growth.

The balance of risks for growth remains tilted to the downside, the central bank said. Downside risks include greater trade uncertainty with the U.S., geopolitical conflicts that may hurt global growth and trade, and Mexico's higher tariffs on countries with which it doesn't have a trade agreement.

Upside risks to its forecast include a successful USMCA review, and the 2026 soccer World Cup which Mexico is co-hosting with the U.S. and Canada, and higher-than-expected U.S. economic growth, the central bank said.

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 26, 2026 14:49 ET (19:49 GMT)