Tesla Compiles Downbeat Delivery Estimates

By Connor Hart

Tesla's own compilation of analyst delivery estimates shows a more pessimistic outlook for the current quarter than FactSet's consensus.

The electric-vehicle maker is expected to see 422,850 car deliveries in the fourth quarter, according to a compilation of analyst estimates published to Tesla's website on Monday. That is down nearly 15% from last year's fourth quarter, and below the 447,000 deliveries, or 10% drop, that analysts polled by FactSet expected.

Looking ahead, Tesla anticipates about 1.75 million deliveries next year, compared with the roughly 1.86 million deliveries that analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for.

The estimates came at the end of a rocky year for the company. Tesla notched steep sales declines early in the year as it faced increasing competition from rival EV brands that ate into the company's market share. At the same time, Chief Executive Elon Musk's time at the White House hurt Tesla's brand reputation in liberal markets like California and Europe.

In the third quarter, though, deliveries jumped and the company set a new sales record, thanks in large part to U.S. customers rushing to take advantage of a now-expired federal EV credit.

Shares, which edged 0.8% higher to $463.15 in premarket trading Tuesday, are up about 10% over the past year.

Write to Connor Hart at connor.hart@wsj.com

Corrections & Amplifications

This article was corrected at 7:58 a.m. ET. Tesla anticipates about 1.75 million deliveries next year, compared with the roughly 1.86 million deliveries that analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for. The original version incorrectly said the company anticipates about 1.75 billion deliveries next year, compared with 1.86 billion deliveries expected by analysts.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

December 30, 2025 07:47 ET (12:47 GMT)