BOE Expected to Cut as ECB Settles Into Its Good Place; U.S. Data in Focus

BOE Expected to Cut as ECB Settles Into Its Good Place; U.S. Data in Focus By Vicky Ge Huang

Good morning. Closely watched this week will be delayed U.S. data on jobs and inflation, as well as central bank decisions at the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

The U.S. likely lost jobs in October due to tens of thousands of workers coming off federal payrolls, but job growth in November should turn positive but remain subdued, according to economists.

Top News BOE Expected to Cut as ECB Settles Into Its Good Place

Five of Europe's central banks will announce policy decisions Thursday, but investors expect only one of them to mirror the Federal Reserve

by lowering borrowing costs: the Bank of England.

The European Central Bank hasn't changed its key rate since June, and believes itself to be in a "good place," with the eurozone economy having avoided a tariff-induced recession and inflation close to its target.

But the BOE is not in a good place. As in the U.S., changes in government policy contributed to a pickup in inflation that was absent in the rest of Europe. Some on the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee remain cautious, and worry that the unexpected revival of inflation so soon after the 2022 surge will raise expectations of future price rises and wage demands.

Fed Officials Spar Over Whether Rate Cuts Risk Credibility on Inflation

Federal Reserve officials reinforced Friday why this week's rate cut was so contentious , with one arguing the central bank's credibility on inflation gives it room to keep easing if the labor market softens and another warning cuts could squander decades of hard-won gains in anchoring price expectations at a low level.

The central bank voted 9-3 on Wednesday to cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point, to a range between 3.5% and 3.75%. Two favored no cut and one preferred a larger reduction. It was the first time since 2019 when three policymakers formally dissented.

BOJ Report Signaling Wage Growth Adds More Rate-Hike Fuel

Japanese companies seem keen to raise wages again next year, despite many bracing for a tariff hit to profits, a central bank report

shows days ahead of its next policy meeting.

The findings, which come alongside a separate Bank of Japan survey on Monday showing improved business sentiment, will likely reinforce expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates to 0.75% from 0.5% this week.

The Fed's New Rate-Setting Officials for 2026: Three Hawks and a Dove

Four of the 12 voting members of the Fed's policy committee will change in January, due to the annual rotation of voting seats among the regional reserve-bank presidents. Three of the four incomers have made hawkish comments in recent months, flagging concerns about cutting rates too much and finding inflation a bigger problem ahead. Here's what to know about the incomers .

Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Data, Rate Decisions in Japan, Eurozone, U.K. in Focus

Key delayed U.S. data on jobs and inflation

will be closely watched as investors gauge how much further the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates.

Also in focus will be central bank decisions from the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. An interest-rate increase is expected in Japan, a rate cut in the U.K., while the eurozone's central bank could signal that rates are unlikely to fall any further.

China's Economy Is Deteriorating on Several Fronts

China's economic momentum slowed broadly in November , with a marked weakening in consumer spending, adding pressure on Beijing to stabilize household and business demand in the world's second-largest economy.

U.S. Economy Why Everyone Got Trump's Tariffs Wrong

In the days following "Liberation Day," the contrast between Trump's optimism and more dire predictions from trade experts and economists was stark.

As businesses and consumers tried to make sense of the mixed messages, the president doubled down on promises he'd made during his 2024 presidential campaign. "The markets are going to boom, the stock [market] is going to boom, the country is going to boom," he said on April 3.

Economists and business leaders dialed up predictions of a fallout. BlackRock's Larry Fink said "most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now." JPMorgan Chase said a global recession was even likely.

An economic collapse hasn't materialized . Neither has an economic revival.

What to Expect From the Double Jobs Report on Tuesday

For months, a crucial question has been hanging over the economy: What is really going on in the labor market?

On Tuesday, the country will finally start to get some answers .

The Labor Department, after pausing its data collection for weeks during the government shutdown, will publish a report with not one but two months' worth of data on the health of the U.S. job market.

The U.S. likely lost jobs in October due to tens of thousands of workers coming off federal payrolls, the result of a deferred-resignation program launched earlier in the year. Economists say that as that effect wears off, however, job growth in November should turn positive but remain subdued.

The Fed Did Banks a Solid This Week. More Favors May Be Needed

For banks and other players in the U.S. financial system, the Federal Reserve's next moves on the size of its balance sheet could matter as much or more

than its decisions on rates, WSJ's Telis Demos writes in a Heard on the Street.

Following the Fed's quarter-point rate-cut decision this past week, banks were among the market's strongest performers. The KBW Nasdaq Bank index was up over 3% for the week, while the S&P 500 was down.

Banks undoubtedly benefit from what is being viewed as the Fed's "dovish" attitude toward its next rate move, with attention being paid to the strength of the labor market. When consumers are working, they are spending, saving and paying back their loans. All are critical for lenders, of course. A steeper yield curve, with falling short-term rates and steady-to-rising longer-term bond yields, also helps banks.

But bank stocks' sharp outperformance was also helped by something else the Fed did on Wednesday: Its somewhat quieter decision to start expanding its balance sheet by buying $40 billion of short-term Treasury securities this month. That can be helpful to banks, by adding to the available pool of deposits for lenders as the Fed buys Treasurys from the market.

Financial Regulation Trump Administration Approves First Round of Crypto-Focused Banks

The Trump administration on Friday blessed plans

to launch five new cryptocurrency-focused national banks, part of its push to give the industry broader access to the traditional financial system.

Circle and Ripple were among the crypto upstarts that received approval on applications filed with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The OCC, part of the Treasury Department, regulates national banks.

JPMorgan Steps Further Into Crypto With Tokenized Money Fund

JPMorgan Chase is joining the list of traditional financial firms seeking to bring blockchain technology to an investing staple : the money-market fund.

The banking giant's $4 trillion asset-management arm is rolling out its first tokenized money-market fund on the Ethereum blockchain. JPMorgan will seed the fund with $100 million of its own capital, and then open it to outside investors on Tuesday.

Forward Guidance Monday (all times ET)

10 a.m.: NAHB Housing Market Index

10:30 a.m.: FRB New York President John Williams speaks at New Jersey Bankers Association discussion on economic growth

6 p.m.: G20 Sherpas, Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meetings

Tuesday

8:30 a.m.: U.S. Employment Report

8:30 a.m.: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

9:45 a.m.: US Flash Manufacturing PMI

9:45 a.m.: US Flash Services PMI

10 a.m.: Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

11 a.m.: ISM Semiannual Supply Chain Planning Forecast

Research U.S. Jobs Data, ECB And BOJ Decisions Could Drive Dollar Lower

The dollar could test new lows if interest-rate differentials move against the currency after upcoming U.S. jobs data and decisions from the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan this week, Morgan Stanley strategists say in a note. A potentially weak nonfarm payrolls report on Tuesday could amplify expectations for at least another Federal Reserve rate cut in the first quarter, they say. The ECB might leave the door open to a rate rise Thursday while the BOJ could raise rates and signal further rate increases on Friday. Overall, a convergence in rates between the U.S. and the rest of the world will "continue to play a key role in driving dollar lower." - Renae Dyer

LME Copper Climbs to Record High on U.S. Rate Cuts, Supply Worries

Copper prices shoot to a new record, boosted by the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cut and hopes for further easing next year. Prices have risen nearly 35% this year. "The combination of lower interest rates and stronger economic growth should boost copper demand," ANZ analysts say. The rally is also driven by persistent concerns over a supply squeeze due to heavy stockpiling in the U.S. and a series of mine disruptions this year. "The rally has unfolded despite continued economic softness in China, underlining that the current copper story is increasingly driven by supply constraints and demand tied to energy transition and AI-related infrastructure," Saxo analysts say. - Giulia Petroni

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December 15, 2025 08:37 ET (13:37 GMT)