Exxon Mobil Sees Higher Earnings, Greater Returns in New 2030 Plan
By Adriano Marchese
Exxon Mobil expects higher earnings and cash flow through the end of the decade, driven by stronger assets, a more profitable business mix, and lower costs from its multiyear transformation.
The energy-and-petrochemical company on Tuesday raised its outlook to $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth from 2024 to 2030, a $5 billion improvement in both metrics compared with its prior forecasts.
Earnings growth is projected to average 13% per year through 2030, with double-digit cash-flow growth, while share repurchases are expected to drive per-share growth higher, the company said.
Exxon said it expects to generate about $145 billion in cumulative surplus cash flow over the next five years, assuming oil prices averaging $65 a barrel. Return on capital employed is expected to reach over 17% in 2030.
Exploration and production, known as upstream, is expected to deliver $14 billion in earnings growth over 2024, for an increase of $5 billion compared with its previous guidance, Exxon said.
The Spring, Texas, company said its advantaged assets are central to its new guidance. Key projects in the Permian Basin, Guyana, and liquefied natural gas are expected to contributed about $4 billion of earnings growth by 2030, it said.
Total upstream production is expected to reach 5.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030, Exxon said. Advantaged assets are expected to make up 65% of total volumes by the end of the decade.
Beyond 2030, Exxon said it aims to strengthen the upstream business with by growing its business in the Permian Basin and start up new LNG projects in Papua New Guinea and Mozambique. The company also said it is growing new businesses that have the potential to reach $13 billion in earnings by 2040 as lower-emissions markets mature, and that it is pursuing lower-emission investments.
Write to Adriano Marchese at adriano.marchese@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 09, 2025 08:19 ET (13:19 GMT)
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