EMEA Morning Briefing: Traders Raise Bets on Fed Rate Cut

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Germany ifo business climate index; trading updates from Julius Baer, Prosus, Naspers

Opening Call:

European stock futures advanced at the start of the week. Asian stock benchmarks rose; the dollar was little changed; while oil and gold futures fell.

Equities:

Stock futures point to a higher open in Europe on Monday as traders raised bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month. On Friday, New York Federal Reserve president John Williams, a top ally of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, said a rate-reduction "in the near term" could be warranted.

Market odds for a December rate cut swung wildly last week.

Investors, analysts, and even Fed officials themselves appear increasingly torn over the central bank's next move. A weakening labor market, still-high inflation, gaps in critical economic data, and a sharply divided rate-setting committee have left investors trading on mere fragments of information, in a landscape that has become unusually hard to read.

Forex:

Barclays expects risk assets to find a firmer footing and the U.S. dollar to strengthen into 2026. The USD has remained resilient despite market uncertainty-fueled jitters over AI valuations, returns on investment spending and earnings growth.

"Our constructive view on the USD is largely predicated on extensive U.S. AI capex plans that could be economically, geopolitically, and competitively transformational for the USD," the bank said.

Moreover, receding Fed independence concerns, easing tariff risks and fiscal stimulus suggest that USD momentum will be positive into 2026.

Bonds:

Moody's on Friday upgraded Italy's rating one level to Baa2 from Baa3. The outlook was revised to stable from positive.

Moody's said it expects Italy's government-debt burden will decline from 2027 onward due to economic and fiscal reforms under its National Recovery and Resilience Plan, as well as the possibility of further policy actions supporting growth beyond the plan's deadline in August 2026.

Moody's projects Italy's debt will reach slightly above 130% of GDP by 2034, from its estimate of about 137% for 2025.

Energy:

Oil futures fell in Asia amid concerns of more supply hitting the market. Oil traders are becoming increasingly concerned that a peace deal drafted by the U.S. and Russia aimed at ending the war in Ukraine could see sanctioned oil back on the market, ANZ said.

Whether a deal is reached or not, ANZ said there are increasing doubts over the effectiveness of the U.S. sanctions.

Metals:

Precious metals may trade rangebound this week, with direction dictated primarily by dollar dynamics, Sucden Financial said.

"A softer USD or signs of easing funding pressures would offer some upside, but sustained gains will be difficult without a renewed demand for defensive positioning," it added.

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Ongoing signs of tightness in the copper physical market could be supporting prices, said ANZ.

Chilean state-owned copper producer Codelco has proposed a record US$330/ton premium for metal sold to South Korean consumers, the bank said. This is roughly in line with offers of $325/ton to clients in Europe. That said, lingering doubt over Federal Reserve rate cuts could weigh on the overall base metals sector, ANZ added.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

AI Investors Want More Making It and Less Faking It

Silicon Valley's startup model encourages "a fake it until you make it" strategy: Pretend to be successful to attract the coders, venture capitalists and customers that bring actual success.

Artificial intelligence took the idea to an extreme, and investors are catching on.

The Fed's Next Rate Move Has Everyone Guessing. Why Confusion Reigns.

No one seems to agree on the Federal Reserve's next move.

Investors, analysts, and even Fed officials themselves appear increasingly torn. A weakening labor market, still-high inflation, gaps in critical economic data, and a sharply divided rate-setting committee have left investors trading on mere fragments of information, in a landscape that has become unusually hard to read.

Moody's Ratings Upgrades Italy on Expectation of Declining Debt

Moody's boosted Italy's sovereign-credit rating on expectations for a decline in government debt.

The ratings agency on Friday upgraded Italy's rating one level to Baa2 from Baa3. The outlook was revised to stable from positive.

White House Hails Progress in Talks With Ukraine to End War With Russia

The White House hailed what it called constructive talks with Ukraine in Geneva on Sunday, saying the two sides had modified the Trump administration's proposed plan for ending the war with Russia.

The White House released a statement that didn't provide details but said the talks had been constructive and had resulted in an "updated and refined peace framework." It added that any deal "must fully uphold Ukraine's sovereignty and deliver a sustainable and just peace."

BHP Abandons Bid for Anglo American Following New Talks

BHP Group said it wouldn't pursue a takeover of Anglo American following new talks, closing the door on a deal that could have turbocharged its copper business and helping to clear the way for its U.K. rival to close a merger with Teck Resources.

Melbourne, Australia-based BHP first approached London-listed Anglo American about a possible takeover in April last year, arguing that a combination of the companies' prized copper mines and other operations would have big benefits.

Owner of U.K.'s Daily Mail Nears Deal to Buy Rival Daily Telegraph

The owner of the U.K.'s Daily Mail is in exclusive talks to buy upmarket rival the Daily Telegraph, in a deal that would end a controversial sale process and create a powerhouse in British right-wing media.

Daily Mail and General Trust said it is completing terms with RedBird IMI, the caretaker owner of the newspaper, for a transaction worth GBP500 million, or about $655 million.

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Expected Major Events for Monday

06:00/FIN: Oct PPI

07:00/NOR: Oct Credit Indicator C2

08:00/CZE: Nov Business cycle survey (consumer/business confidence)

09:00/POL: Oct Average gross wages

09:00/POL: Oct PPI

09:00/POL: Oct Industrial Production Index

09:00/POL: Oct Agricultural prices

09:00/GER: Nov ifo Business Climate Index

10:00/MLT: Oct RPI

14:00/BEL: Nov Business Confidence Survey

15:59/UKR: Oct PPI

17:59/UK: Oct Adzuna UK Job Market Report

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 24, 2025 00:15 ET (05:15 GMT)