European Midday Briefing: Shares Fall as Investors Await Economic Data

MARKET WRAPS

Stocks:

European stocks fell Monday ahead of key economic data from both sides of the Atlantic likely to be closely watched by investors this week.

The FTSE 100, the DAX, the CAC 40 and the Stoxx Europe 600 index each lost ground after Friday's higher close.

"The next few days could be key for long term direction of stocks and how they perform into year end," XTB said.

PMI data for November is expected from the eurozone and the U.K. on Friday while October PPI and CPI data will be released Wednesday.

Thursday will see the release of eurozone construction output figures for September as well as the bloc's Consumer Confidence Indicator for November.

Meanwhile, the European Commission is due to release its autumn 2025 European economic forecast on Monday.

Today also sees European Central Bank members delivering remarks, including Philip Lane to lecture on monetary policy at the University of Galway.

Economic Insight

Morgan Stanley expects the ECB to cut interest rates further in the first half of next year and hold them at 1.50% from 2.00% currently.

"Softer growth, undershooting inflation, and a limited fiscal impulse push the ECB toward further easing, keeping policy mildly accommodative even as pension fund duration cuts steepen the curve."

European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos in a speech Monday said that threats to the stability of the eurozone's financial system remained "elevated."

"The potential for policy shocks to disrupt the international order poses significant risks of geoeconomic and regulatory fragmentation across the globe, while ongoing geopolitical tensions make more frequent and impactful adverse tail events increasingly likely."

Switzerland's economy contracted in the third quarter of the year, with GDP declining 0.5% in the three months through September.

Market Insight

Average home asking prices fell in the U.K. in November . According to property website Rightmove, average asking price fell 1.8% to $481,288, representing a larger-than-usual November drop.

Stocks to Watch

London's miners fell in with Anglo American, Valterra Platinum and Antofagasta among those posting declines.

Markets now believe there is less than a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut by year end. Lower rates would reduce borrowing costs and help stimulate demand.

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures pointed to a higher open as investors remain uncertain over whether the Fed will cut interest rates next month. Monthly jobs data for September is expected Thursday. On Wednesday, the Fed is scheduled to release the minutes of its October meeting.

Forex:

The euro fell against the pound and sterling was flat against the dollar. The U.K. currency could see renewed falls if inflation data on Wednesday show price pressures eased in October, ING said.

The dollar traded steadily as investors wait for the release of delayed U.S. jobs data for clues on whether the Fed will cut interest rates again next month.

"The December meeting is a coin toss as the Fed still wouldn't have enough data to be convinced one way or the other," Jefferies said.

Bonds:

Eurozone government bond yields turned lower after a slight rise at opening, tracking with falling Treasury yields . Moves remained contained in both eurozone and Treasury yields.

Eurozone rates will probably stay rangebound until hard data, like GDP, paints a more robust growth picture, ING said.

U.K. government bonds yields were steady as investors await Wednesday's U.K. inflation data.

"This will be a crucial data release as it could determine whether the Bank of England cuts interest rates next month," XTB said.

Treasury yields declined with investors awaiting the delayed September nonfarm payrolls data which could provide a clearer view of the labor market after weeks of incomplete information, Kudotrade said.

Soft data could reinforce the case for further easing by the Fed, while stronger readings may bolster the Fed's cautious stance.

Treasury yields were expected to fall in the first half of next year before rising again, Morgan Stanley said, adding that yields were expected to be range-bound in 2026.

Meanwhile, issuance was forecast to remain a key driver for Treasurys in coming years, according to Nordea.

"We maintain our view of higher long end rates both from our impression of the labour market and inflation, but perhaps more importantly from the increasing supply side in the bond market that we expect to influence markets the next couple of years."

Metals:

Gold prices slipped in early trading as investors scaled back expectations of a December interest-rate cut by the Fed.

"Softer expectations for looser policy followed cautious comments from Fed officials, while the six-week U.S. government shutdown has delayed key labour and inflation data, leaving policymakers more reluctant to commit to another move," MUFG said.

Energy:

Brent crude prices were expected to fluctuate in the $60-$70 a barrel trading range, as rising oil inventories haven't yet translated into an overabundance of oil, according to UBS.

"By mid-2026, the market focus will likely shift to 2027, during which we anticipate stalling non-OPEC+ supply growth, and specifically a market focus on limited spare capacity amid still rising oil demand."

EMEA HEADLINES

New Rare-Earths Plant in Europe Shows How Tough Breaking China's Grip Will Be

Europe is trying to get itself on the global rare-earths map, and a new facility on Russia's border is its opening bid.

The city of Narva in Estonia, once a textiles hub for the Russian Empire, is now host to Europe's biggest production plant for the kinds of rare-earth magnets needed in electric cars and wind turbines. It is part of Europe's push to secure a foothold in a global supply chain dominated at every step by China. Built by Canada's Neo Performance Materials and financed in part by the European Union, the factory is expected to begin commercial deliveries to companies including the German car-parts supplier Robert Bosch next year.

Ukraine's $200 Billion Lifeline From Europe Stumbles on Pushback in Belgium

BRUSSELS-The European Union is racing against the clock to overcome Belgium's objections to a plan to fund Ukraine's defense using Russian money.

Ukraine is on course to run out of cash in the spring, EU officials say, and they see their loan proposal as the best option for allowing Kyiv to continue buying weapons. The plan would lend as much as 183 billion euros (about $213 billion) to Ukraine, backed by Russian financial assets that are immobilized in Belgium.

Fitch Upgrades Greece on Declining Debt Ratio, Budget Performance

Fitch Ratings upgraded Greece's ratings by one step, citing the country's declining debt and budget performance.

The ratings agency on Friday upgraded Greece's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to BBB from BBB-.

The Gold Bar Diplomacy That Won Switzerland a Trade Deal With Trump

The U.S. deal to slash crippling tariffs on Switzerland came together after months of shuttle diplomacy and a charm offensive by the Alpine nation's secret weapon: its billionaires.

Earlier this month, with government negotiations largely stuck, a group of Switzerland's most senior executives including Johann Rupert, the chairman of luxury-goods firm Richemont, and Daniel Jaeggi, president of Swiss commodities trader Mercuria, visited President Trump at the Oval Office.

New Nuclear Arms Race Pits U.S. Against Both Russia and China

The new nuclear race has begun. But unlike during the Cold War, the U.S. must prepare for two peer rivals rather than one-at a time when it has lost its clear industrial and economic edge.

China, which long possessed just a small nuclear force, is catching up fast, while Russia is developing a variety of new-generation systems aimed at American cities.

GLOBAL NEWS

Japan's Economy Contracts for First Time in Six Quarters

TOKYO-The Japanese economy contracted for the first time in six quarters, further complicating the timeline of the central bank's next interest-rate hike.

Real gross domestic product shrank 0.4% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, preliminary government data showed Monday. That compared with the 0.6% growth recorded in the April-June period and marked the first contraction since the first quarter of 2024.

Wall Street Blows Past Bubble Worries to Supercharge AI Spending Frenzy

Not long ago, Blue Owl Capital was an upstart investment firm that lent money to midsize U.S. companies such as Sara Lee Frozen Bakery.

These days, the firm is financing massive data centers costing tens of billions of dollars for the likes of Meta and Oracle-a sign of just how quickly Wall Street has become the enabler of America's artificial-intelligence boom.

Bonds Are Heading for the Best Year Since 2020

Almost everything has lined up for bonds lately.

The Federal Reserve has been cutting interest rates. Jobs growth and consumer spending are slowing, keeping hopes for further cuts alive, but not pointing to an imminent recession that would threaten corporate balance sheets. Inflation pressure has continued to moderate, despite fears that President Trump's tariffs will drive prices higher.

Trump Backs Vote to Release Epstein Files in Sharp Reversal

WASHINGTON-President Trump threw in the towel on dissuading House Republicans from backing a measure to release files related to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, saying Sunday night that GOP lawmakers should instead embrace the vote.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

November 17, 2025 05:09 ET (10:09 GMT)