China's Exports Rise at Fastest Pace in Six Months Despite U.S. Tariffs—Update

China's exports rose at the fastest pace in six months in September, beating market expectations and underscoring the sector's continued role as a key growth driver for the world's second-largest economy.

Outbound shipments rose 8.3% from a year earlier, accelerating from August's 4.4% increase and exceeding the 6.0% growth forecast by economists in a Wall Street Journal poll, according to data released Monday by the General Administration of Customs.

Exports to the U.S. fell 27.0% on year, extending a slide that began in April when the Trump administration's "Liberation Day" tariffs on Chinese goods took effect.

"While this resilience underscores the ability of Chinese exporters to cope with U.S. tariffs, the latest re-escalation in tensions with the U.S. still poses some downside risks," said Zichun Huang, economist at Capital Economics.

Beijing last week announced a fresh round of export controls, including restrictions on rare-earth materials and related technologies, as well as an antitrust investigation into U.S. chipmaker Qualcomm. In response, U.S. President Trump threatened to cancel a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods.

Even so, economists expect the impact of higher U.S. tariffs to be limited, as direct shipments to the U.S. now only make up about 10% of China's total exports, Huang said.

Many goods originally destined for the U.S. have been rerouted through third countries such as Vietnam, which has emerged as a major transshipment hub and reported a 24.5% jump in imports from China, customs data showed.

Meanwhile, exports to other major trading partners continued to post double-digit gains.

Shipment to the European Union, China's No. 2 trading partner, rose 14.2%, the fastest pace in more than three years. Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, its top trading partner, rose 15.6% on year.

China's trade surplus stood at $90.45 billion from $102.3 billion in August, missing the $98.1 billion surplus expected by the economists.

Imports also surprised to the upside, rising 7.4% on year in September after a 1.3% increase in August. Economists had expected only 1.0% growth.

The surge in imports to a 17-month high surprised ING economists, given the recent signs of softness in domestic demand.

The impact of the U.S.-China trade spat was reflected in the figures, with imports from the U.S. slumping 16% on the year, while those from the EU, Japan, South Korea, Africa and Latin America all saw strong growth in September, said Lynn Song, ING's Chief Economist for Greater China.

"China's trade resilience shows that U.S. tariffs aren't everything," said Song, though overall trends remain uncertain.

Write to Singapore Editors at singaporeeditors@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 13, 2025 02:09 ET (06:09 GMT)